Recent Russian Provocations, In and Out of the Arctic

October 7th, 2025
Elisa Ma

With many resolutional affirmatives either aiming to deter or cooperate with Russia, Russian military actions almost always provide (non)uniqueness or demonstrate harms of United States federal inaction. The Kingdom of Denmark, an Arctic state as recognized by the Arctic Council, has reported on October 3rd, 2025, that Russian warships and drones have entered Danish air and naval space. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has remarked that a European “hybrid war” has started, warning that the current situation is as dangerous as World War II. The Danish Defence Intelligence Service has defined “hybrid war” as political/economic/informational/military pressure to undermine other states without being deemed armed conflict.

Russian Aggression and International Attention

With the Russo-Ukraine War having surpassed its 1300th day, eyes are on Russia for signs of broader revisionism. In September 2025, Poland invoked NATO’s Article 4 after Russian drones were shot down in Poland’s airspace. Article 4 only calls for member countries to have a consultation, but suspected Russian drone flights above Estonia and Germany have caught NATO’s attention. In response, European Union leaders have floated the idea of creating a “drone wall” to better detect and intercept drones.

Existential Impact?

Although Russia has been painted as aggressive, the likelihood of the next world war and nuclear escalation are up to debate. While the Danish Defence Intelligence Service just listed threats of military provocation and sabotage as high risk, the same assessment marked conventional military attacks against Denmark as having virtually no risk. Interestingly, the same Danish Defence Intelligence Service back in February has warned that Russia could expand war to NATO countries if NATO is perceived as weak or fractured. Separately, President Donald Trump has signaled that the US would be on board with following Russia’s voluntary limit on nuclear weapons.

In Context of Policy Debate

War impacts largely do not change in light of Russian drones, so existing impact defense would largely still work. What’s new, though, is that uniqueness can be updated. Affirmatives can pinpoint that now, more than ever, is the time to cooperate or deter. Conversely, negatives can highlight that collective defense and arms talks are underway now, and that US federal action would be viewed as provocative.