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Why Canada Is Reopening the Door to China

December 30, 2025
Patrick Li

In October, Mr Carney shook hands with China’s president, Xi Jinping, on the sidelines of a meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders in South Korea. Using language like “turning point” and “reconsideration,” he accepted Mr Xi’s invitation to visit China. Canada is now mulling how to re-engage with a country once labeled as its “biggest geopolitical threat.” “Four months ago, there was no serious discussion...Those who were advocating for stronger interactions with China were marginalized,” says Paul Evans of the University of British Columbia. “Boom. That’s changing.”

The American Factor

There are two predominant reasons behind this shift; perhaps the most monumental is President Donald Trump, who eroded Canada’s perhaps undying trust in its southern partner in slapping blanket 25% tariffs on Canadian goods and saying that the country should be “America’s 51st state.” Funnily enough, his high-handedness prompted Canadian cafes to rename Americanos “Canadianos” and to promote domestic “buy Canadian” campaigns. A recent Pew survey found that, as of right now, nearly 34% of Canadians viewed Americans favourably, down nearly 20 percentage points from 2024. China has filled the vacuum. A survey carried out in September by the Angus Reid Institute—a pollster—found that 27% of Canadians viewed China favourably, up from 16% earlier last year.

The Domestic Factor

The second reason as to why Canadians are drifting east is Mr Carney himself. Mr Carney represents a break form nine years of Trudeau, a welcome chance for China to reset relations. When Canada’s then minister of agriculture visited China last year, it was reported that he was unable to secure any official meetings. Yet, this year, around that same time of the fateful Xi-Carney handshake, the current minister was able to meet senior officials in China. A month later, a Chinese business delegation flew to Toronto to “implement the important consensus reached by our leaders.”

The Big Picture

In recent weeks, Chinese state media have played up Carney’s comment that “the center of gravity in the global economy is shifting (away from America).” Yet, it is easily inferable that China is at the same time mindful that the options of Canada are limited. America “remains constrained by the reality of its long-term reliance on the States,” Su Xiaohui of a think tank writes.

Canada, however, is also keen on finding wiggle room. In 2024, its trade with the US was worth 762 billion, drastically more than the 86 billion with China. To reduce exposure, Canada wants to double exports to other markets by 2035. And with China, there is room for growth; it only takes around 4% of Canada’s exports.