The Next Kim: North Korea’s Leader Eyes Potential Successor

In recent decades, North Korea (officially the Democratic People’s Republic of North Korea) has climbed the ranks as an increasingly powerful player on the world stage. It has done so through substantially leveraging the threat of nuclear weapons use as a means to protect its national sovereignty and inflate its geopolitical power. All the while, the country’s totalitarian government has oppressed its people greatly and violated human rights on a mass-scale. At the head of that government is its infamous Supreme Leader, Kim Jong Un. Kim assumed control of North Korea following his father's death in 2011 and has continued to exert total control over the country for nearly 15 years since. Now, it seems that North Korea’s Supreme Leader is coming to terms with a fundamental fact: that he cannot rule forever. 

By benefit of being a dictator, Kim Jong Un does not have to worry about being ousted from office in the same ways that democratically-elected leaders do, like via elections or term limits. But while it’s unlikely that democratic checks will bring an end to Kim’s reign, nature inevitably will. Like his father, Kim Jong Il, and his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Un will eventually die, and when he does, someone will have to take his place. This exact subject seems to be of particular interest to the Supreme Leader as of late. While information regarding North Korea is always dependent on the accuracy of South Korean intelligence, a Seoul spy agency now believes that Kim Jong Un has selected his 13-year-old daughter, Kim Ju Ae, as his heir. 

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service explained that Kim Ju Ae's increasingly frequent appearances alongside her father at public events, including military parades and even summits with world leaders, suggest that Kim Jong Un is preparing her to one day take over. Intelligence even suggests that Kim Ju Ae has been giving her father policy advice at these events. State media also seems to signal Kim Ju Ae’s future importance. State propaganda is often how North Korea attempts to sell narratives to the public and preempt government actions. Symbolism is very important to the propaganda culture, with state media often carefully crafted to emphasize Kim Jong Un’s power. Typically, when other individuals are photographed with the Supreme Leader, they are framed to appear shorter than him and directed to stand behind him. However, recent state media has shown Kim Ju Ae standing taller than and walking alongside her father. While this may seem inconsequential to the untrained eye, with a propaganda machine as robust as North Korea’s, the tiniest of details can be extremely telling. 

If this new intelligence is correct, then choosing his daughter as his successor would be a surprisingly progressive move for Kim Jong Un. After all, the DPRK is an extremely socially conservative nation. It adheres to strict gender roles, where women are not considered equal to men. The selection would also be unorthodox because earlier intelligence from the NIS has suggested that Kim has 3 children, with the eldest being a son. Traditionally, Kim’s son would be the obvious heir. Willfully circumventing that option and choosing his youngest daughter to succeed him instead would definitely be a bold move for the Supreme Leader. However, while Kim Ju Ae may not be his only child, North Korean state media has often referred to her as his “most beloved” child. Still, Kim Ju Ae may not truly be her father’s future successor. While South Korea’s NIS believes her to be in the successor-designate stage, she was notably absent from the key party congress in Pyongyang, which Seoul’s intelligence report had predicted she would attend. 

Regardless, transfers of power have been crucial turning points for authoritarian regimes in the past. It has often been the case that new leaders are unable to maintain the same control as their predecessor. Based on careful observation and analysis, it does seem that Kim Jong Un is preempting this problem by preparing his daughter to inherit the fourth generation of the Kim dynasty and continue her father’s totalitarian rule. However, there is no telling what Kim Ju Ae’s vision for North Korea would look like. The defining feature of the DPRK’s government is that the Supreme Leader holds all the power. If Kim Ju Ae did succeed her father as the Supreme Leader, she would likely have full control to shape government policy however she wanted. So, what does this teenage girl have in store for North Korea? Only time will tell. 

Read more here: 

• Jake Kwon, BBC

• Associated Press, NPR

• Shahana Yasmin, The Independent

Extemp Question: What does Kim Ju Ae’s potential successor designation mean for the future of North Korea? 

Extemp Analysis by Brogan Jones

AGD/Background: The AGD is pretty versatile on this one, as it’s not a super serious topic, so you could go for either a funny or serious opening and it would likely go over well either way. On background information, you’ll want to briefly run through aspects of the North Korean regime and explain the recent intelligence that suggests Kim Ju Ae may be Kim Jong Un’s successor. I would then talk about how some people believe Kim Ju Ae would bring better conditions for the North Korean people, which transitions perfectly into the answer/SOS portion. 

Answer/SOS: If I got this question, my answer would be that Kim Ju Ae’s potential successor designation will only mean further repression for the North Korean people. This is true for three key reasons… 1) The Kim dynasty is an ideological unit, 2) Kim Jong Un is carefully preparing her for how to rule, 3) Progressive reforms risk upsetting authoritarian rule. 

For the first point, I would talk about how many people hoped when Kim Jong Il passed, that Kim Jong Un would open the nation up to the West. This did not happen. Likewise, many people now think that Kim Ju Ae would bring progressive reforms and improve the quality of life of North Korean citizens, but that will also probably not happen. The Kim Dynasty, thus far, has remained an ideological unit, with each leader only enforcing harsher standards than the last. 

For the second point, I would discuss a lot of what is brought up in this article. Talk about Kim Ju Ae’s appearance at prominent public events, and how her father is escorting her to important summits with world leaders. He is briefing her on how to rule, how to take over for him. She is learning from a dictator, so she will likely also be a dictator. 

Finally, I would talk about how transfers of power are turning points for authoritarian regimes. If the new leader invites reform or cannot maintain the same repression as the last, the regime is threatened. I would talk about how there is likely immense pressure on Kim Ju Ae to not give the people an inch in this regard and continue to enforce the same iron-fist rule as her father.