The Fallout of Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela

On January 3, 2026, US President Donald Trump took military action to abduct Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. During the operation (titled Operation Absolute Resolve by the administration), the US military also sent significant air strikes targeting Venezuelan military infrastructure. Following the attack, many questions have ensued concerning the future of Venezuela’s government as Maduro remains in US custody, political rivals Delcy Rodriguez and Maria Corina Machado compete for political favor, and Trump still pledges to “run” Venezuela for the foreseeable future. 

Although the interim President of Venezuela is Delcy Rodriguez, the Trump administration still holds significant control over Venezuela. It has already implemented several administrative changes, particularly concerning Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A., or PDVSA. PDVSA is Venezuela's primary state-owned oil and gas company, which is also the company with primary access to Venezuela’s vast oil resources. The US has repeatedly shown interest in these resources, and is speculated to have coerced the PDVSA to give the US access to these resources or risk futher military invasion. As of January 6, President Trump announced that Venezuela would be “turning over” about 40 million barrels of sanctioned crude oil to the US to be sold at a market price, which could generate up to $2.75 billion for the US. This has famously caused a dip in US oil prices, making some US companies wary of the effects of US-Venezuela relations. 

The US has claimed to have abducted Maduro in attempts to stabilize the nation and restore democratic values. However, the Trump administration’s priority remains on oil, which may prove to not succeed. Though Trump has already stated that the US will be attaining these 40 million barrels, the process of producing these is both unlikely and strenuous. Though Venezuela does have vast oil reserves, they consist of primarily heavy and sour crude, comparable to that found in Canada. This generally sells at a much lower price than higher quality oil, and is harder to extract. Seeing as the PDVSA is already in a state of disrest following mass firings in prior years, putting further strain on the company will only further the crisis. 

However, a stable future for Venezuela is not improbable. Though the US performed the initial invasion of Venezuela alone, multilateral efforts are crucial to giving the Venezuelan people a hopeful future for the nation. A prosperous Venezuela is in the US and general national community’s interest. By making the stabilization of Venezuela a priority, the international community will align ideologically, strengthening past alliances and forming new ones.  

Read More Here:

• Michael Collins and Francesca Chambers, USA Today

• Tony Frangie Mawad, Politico 

• Brian Bennett, TIME 

• Lee Ying Shan, CNBC

• Aimee Ortiz, Hannah Ziegler and Yan Zhuang, NY Times

• Scott R. Anderson, Alex Brockwehl, Marcela Escobari, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Samantha Gross, Michael E. O’Hanlon, Ted Piccone, Elizabeth N. Saunders, Caitlin Talmadge, David G. Victor, Valerie Wirtschafter and Kelebogile Zvobgo, Brookings

• The Economist

• Rod Nickel, Reuters

Extemp Analysis by: Jana Schodzinski

Question: Will the Trump administration’s execution of Operation Absolute Resolve restore Venezuelan democracy? 

AGD: Considering the promptness of the operation and disorganization of the fallout, especially concerning the governance of Venezuela, a humorous AGD would be easy to come across. The news conference following Maduro’s abduction itself has many aspects that are easy to satirize. 

Background: Though the US Congress was not made aware of the operation, the concept of the US taking military action was not far-fetched prior to the operation– it had been speculated for months. Be sure to include Trump’s continual threats against Venezuela, as well as the state of Venezuela, in your background. 

Answer: Per typical extemp fashion, there is no incorrect answer to the question. However, in my eyes, evidence generally leans toward the negation of the question due to the haphazard state of Venezuela in the weeks following Maduro’s abduction, as well as the US’ lack of any long-term solutions. 

If answering in the negation, three potential points are:

3 Points: 

• The US’ lack of a transitional plan post-capture of Maduro

• Internal Venezuelan regime structures 

• US focuses on oil production 

Analysis + Concluding Thoughts: Seeing as this is an evaluative question, expectation/verification (or violation) substructure would generally be the best to use to maximize the content of your speech. Be sure to stay updated on daily changes to ensure that your speeches are factually accurate and provide as much clarity as possible.