China’s Growing Naval Prowess

Three days before Christmas, standing before an artificial cardboard image of a futuristic-looking silver battleship extending across New York harbor, President Donald Trump declared that he had ordered the US Navy to begin construction on around two dozen super-battleships, which he has unsurprisingly dubbed the “Trump-class Battleship.” This announcement comes as America’s Navy is losing both its technological and numerical edge worldwide, most notably to China, which has developed a military-industrial complex that, by sheer capacity alone, far outstrips the US’s. Just thirty years ago, as China was in the midst of a bout of sabre-rattling against Taiwan, all it took was for one American carrier group to sail through the Taiwan Strait for the threats to stop. Under the Biden and Trump administrations, however, sending “freedom of navigation” missions only intensifies Chinese grey-zone behavior. In this context, it is useful to analyze the growing power of the People’s Liberation Army at sea, and whether it’s inevitable that the Indo-Pacific will one day become China’s pond, just as the Gulf of Mexico is to the American Navy. 

Let’s begin with manufacturing capability first. The centerpiece of the American Navy’s strength is the 11 aircraft carriers that it boasts, forming the core of an aircraft carrier strike group that allows the US to project power globally. In 2025, for example, the USS Gerald R. Ford and its squadron of amphibious assault crafts, destroyers, submarines and logistics ships managed to fully blockade Venezuela for months until its leader was captured by aircraft deployed from the Ford carrier group. Currently, China only possesses three aircraft carriers, none of which currently match the scale of the Ford-class carriers that the US has already begun to deploy. However, based on satellite imagery of Chinese shipbuilding docks, many Western analysts now believe that China is on track to construct its own nuclear-powered supercarriers capable of matching the firepower and capacity of its Ford-class counterparts. The Defense Department now believes that China is aiming to produce six new carriers, all of which will be either “Fujian Class” carriers, which are somewhat smaller than their Ford-class counterparts, but certainly outclass the half-century-old Nimitz-class ships, which make up a bulk of America’s fleet, or the hypothesized “Type 004” nuclear-powered carriers. If China achieves this goal, it may possess firepower capable of overpowering a globally overstretched America within the South China Sea. It will also strengthen China’s counter-American strategy within the Indo-Pacific, which consists of destroying or pushing back American aircraft before they can get within range to strike any Chinese military targets. The US is planning to build five more Ford-class carriers in the coming decade, but the advent of each new ship will mean the retirement of an old one. China, therefore, is closing the gap quickly.

Aircraft carriers only represent a small fraction of a Navy’s true strength. As it becomes increasingly easy to strike large, unmaneuverable targets, it is the stealthy equipment that will prove most critical when a conflict begins. For that reason, both American and Chinese navies are quickly modernizing their own submarine fleets, integrating more advanced missile technology while making detection more difficult. For now, the United States possesses the advantage in the realm of stealth. A majority of its submarines run on nuclear power, making it far more difficult to detect than their Chinese diesel-power counterparts. But Chinese subs are rapidly catching up. The Zhou-class submarines, which are under development, will not only be the most stealthy the nation has ever produced, but their capacity to fire both land, attack and anti-ship missiles makes them far more versatile in combat. In the same vein, new Chinese destroyers are being equipped with newly developed hypersonic missiles, a feat which American ships have been unable to match. 

Ultimately, in the short term, China’s strategic objective with its naval expansion is to successfully blockade and conquer Taiwan. For that reason, China has also invested heavily in stockpiling advanced missile systems and amphibious assault crafts, which may be critical in any Taiwanese invasion. China’s new Sichuan-class ship is capable of carrying troop-transport frigates, planes and helicopters, making it even more advanced than America’s transport frigates, capable only of deploying helicopters but not planes. This represents a major strategic disadvantage for any American troops that may come to Taiwan’s aid, since Chinese planes can be delivered to Taiwan’s doorstep, whilst American ones will have to fly long distances over open oceans to reach their targets. Chinese missiles can also strike further than ever before. The furthest military base from which American planes can reasonably deploy ships and planes to rapidly respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be from Guam, some 4700 km away. China today possesses over 400 missiles capable of reaching targets over 5500 miles away, putting even such bases at risk. 

Chinese capabilities, while becoming increasingly ferocious, are by no means insurmountable. American sixth-generation fighters, under development by Boeing, are better able to avoid detection while in the air, and, crucially, can deploy from further afield. Integrating artificial intelligence into a large, expendable fleet of drones, a project which the US Defense Department recently poured $100 million into, could overwhelm Chinese ships in the same way Ukrainian drones have been dealing lethal damage to Russian ships in the Black Sea. China is beset with internal problems as well. In 2024, a major corruption scandal involving officials filling rockets with water instead of fuel put Chinese military readiness into the spotlight. Whether integration between the Navy and other branches of the PLA is going smoothly is also an open question. Nevertheless, in this increasingly intense arms race, it is difficult for Western analysts to know definitively who has the upper hand. 

Read more here:

• Richard Sisk, Military Times

• Matthew Bodner and Keir Simmons, NBC News

• David Rising, Associated Press

• Patrick Tucker, Defense One

Question: Is the Chinese Navy on track to facilitate an invasion of Taiwan?