Iran at the Brink: The Potential for US Invasion

As the protests in Iran continue to enflame the country, the United States continues to become more and more emboldened by the poor domestic decisions taken by the Iranian government. With thousands continuing to suffer under the Iranian government, protesters are hoping to overthrow the Iranian regime in favor of a freer system and allow greater economic prosperity.

In the past month, Iran’s economy has tanked; in the past 3 months alone, its inflation has risen 50%. It doesn’t just end there—the US ​​has been sanctioning Iran by blocking roughly 100,000 barrels per day, which decreases their monthly oil exports by 16% and by 100 billion dollars. Additionally, fueled by inflation, the Iranian rial has also continued to suffer, with over 1,000,072 rials equivalent to 1 US Dollar. Since 2023, the rial has lost 400% of its value. All of these economic problems have risen into humanitarian crises, with many unable to afford necessities such as food. To top everything off, Iran is currently going through a freshwater crisis, which leads many to believe that Tehran is bound for evacuation in the future. 

Protests have continued in Tehran throughout January because of the population’s desire for a better life. The people of Tehran are by now fed up with the current economic situation and wish for better government. Additionally, the Iranian government has killed over 12,000 protesters, leaving their corpses on the streets of Tehran. Even peaceful protests that have occurred in the city have left hundreds dead on the street.

With Operation Southern Spear and the Venezuelan operation coming to an end, many are wondering if President Trump will truly pull the trigger and invade Iran. Although President Trump has previously warned that Iran has crossed a "red line" with their attacks on protestors, he appears to have backed off on imminent military action in recent weeks after claiming that Iran had stopped the execution of over 800 people. Protestors in Iran have expressed disappointment in Trump, saying that he let them down by not acting on his threats to topple the regime. Nevertheless, the possibility of another Venezuela-like action hangs over the head of the Iranian government—just this Tuesday, Trump warned Iran that continued assassination threats made by leaders in Tehran would be met with the country getting “blown up.” Retaliation against the regime could range from a direct military attack to cyberhacks on the country's infrastructure to placing further sanctions on the Iranian government. Given Trump's past foreign policy approaches, however, it is likely that he will not choose to intervene in Iran unless it serves a personal interest of the US, like a guarantee of regime change in the country. 

Read more here: 

• Mucahithan Avcioglu, Anandolu Anjansi 

• Shayan Sardarizadeh, BBC

•  Mostafa Salem, CNN