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The Death of the TACO Trade

January 20, 2026
David Hain

After overtaking Venezuela, President Trump hosted a press conference, featuring Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, General Dan Caine and himself. When pressed about the operation’s executive overreach—with the president circumventing congressional approval—Trump deemed that such action was necessary, as he didn’t want anyone to “sabotage” the operation. According to Trump, unilateral policymaking is necessary to have “successes” on a domestic and international scale.

None of that information is new. But the capture of Venezuela has redefined the precedent of how that claim is perceived.

Trump’s domestic and foreign policy had become known as “The TACO Trade” – TACO standing for “Trump Always Chickens Out”. It’s the persistent belief that Trump’s threats cannot always be taken at face value; that more often than not, Trump repeals his edicts. In March 2025, Trump began proposing threats to take over Greenland, but those irascible claims weren’t taken with proper gravitas, with Americans believing that he was bluffing. In May 2025, when Trump threatened to fire the head of the federal reserve, Jerome Powell, outrage erupted across the country: but adhering to the TACO Trade, Jerome Powell was never ousted.

As President of the United States, Trump’s claims would always be taken with some amount of responsibility. But because of his history of backing out before acting on his ambitions—whether that be with global tariffs or ending all wars— political analysts were able to look at his assertions with scrutiny.

But after the American invasion of Venezuela, analysts no longer have the luxury of skepticism.

The Venezuelan invasion was an unprecedented breach of civil and international law. Domestically, Trump had acted on his own federal authority, sidestepping Congressional approval in the most radical act in his presidency; internationally, Trump deposed a foreign leader and infringed on Venezuelan sovereignty.

The invasion of Venezuela has some explicit benefits for Trump—most notably giving American companies the ability to drill in Venezuela’s oil-rich land—but the implicit power behind the invasion is far more sinister. The invasion of Venezuela was so unprecedentedly radical that it has redefined the domestic and global perception of what Trump is willing to do. And as a result, the TACO Trade has died.

After the invasion, Trump reignited threats of overtaking Greenland. But instead of the threat being largely neglected, countries around the world have responded with concern and belligerence. France, Sweden, the United Kingdom and others have publicly pledged their support for Greenland’s Danish sovereignty: the world was scared.

Concurrently, US stock markets have felt the impacts of Greenland’s potential acquisition. The US stock market dropped lower than it had in months; Wall Street was in shambles. Although Trump ultimately admitted that he doesn’t intend to take Greenland by military force, it didn’t feel like an example of the TACO Trade: this threat was real. And everyone knew it.

In one month, Trump’s domestic and international threats went from being taken with a grain of salt to being appallingly realistic. The invasion of Venezuela has killed the TACO Trade—now, every threat Trump makes holds weight.