Myanmar’s Junta Expected to Retain Control After Controversial Election

On Sunday, voting closed in the final stage of Myanmar’s general election; the party backed by the country’s ruling militia is expected to win. In a country mired in a brutal civil war, outspoken international critics have called the election unfair and designed to legitimize the authority of the oppressive military junta.

The three-part voting process began in December of last year; in the first two rounds, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP)—supported by the army—won 193 out of 209 seats in the lower house, as well as 52 out of 78 seats in the upper house. 25% of the seats in the parliament are already reserved for the military. The current coup leader, Gen Min Aung Hlaing, is predicted to assume the presidency.

A Brief History of Myanmar

In the 2010s, political reforms in Myanmar freed previously imprisoned politicians and allowed them to run for positions in government. As a result, Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi won a landslide victory and was elected as the country’s leader in 2016, breaking away from Myanmar’s previous military rule. 

In 2021, a military coup ousted Suu Kyi’s government and imprisoned her, following her victory in the 2020 general election. Since then, the country has faced widespread conflict; as of late January, over 7,700 deaths and 30,000 arrests have occurred due to war with the junta. Suu Kyi is currently serving a 27-year sentence, and her party, along with numerous other opposition parties, dissolved in 2023 after failing to comply with military-imposed rules.

This general election marked the first one held since the junta took control. The USDP, which only held 6% of seats in the 2020 parliament, is now set to manage most of the government.

Election Controversies

The myriad of controversies surrounding Myanmar’s general election have led to fighting between groups that support and oppose the military government.

A law was recently passed that penalized citizens who criticized the polls, leading to more than 400 arrests. Additionally, prior to the election, police members followed and monitored international journalist groups; as a result, language was limited in fear of repercussions.

In response, during the first two rounds of voting, gangs that opposed the military rule attacked polling stations, leading to at least two deaths. In December, candidate Wai Lin Htet was detained by similar groups.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) announced last Tuesday that it would not certify Myanmar’s election, due to concerns over a lack of free participation. Furthermore, Tom Andrews, a former US Representative and the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Myanmar, called the election "fraudulent."

As a response, Min Aung Hlaing asserted that Myanmar is “not concerned whether this is recognized by foreign countries or not.”

Significance of the Myanmar Election

Voter turnout this cycle saw a 35% decrease from the 2020 elections. This may be attributed to distrust of the government; additionally, citizens of 67 townships beset by active conflict were unable to vote.

Myanmar’s election marks an attempt for the citizens to shift back to normalcy. Under the guise of a democratic process, the USDP can validate its control over the country through the votes given to it.

In reality, the election has been riddled with undemocratic principles: the punishment of dissenters, the inability of citizens in war zones to vote, and the rejection of international concerns. It is likely that the military government will continue to retain its tight control over the country and perpetuate the ongoing civil war.

Elections can cause change; however, when they are unfair, one can only expect a continuity of the status quo.

Read more here:

• Staff, AP News

• Jonathan Head and Josh Cheetham, BBC

• Staff, Reuters