The Taliban's Tajikistan Troubles

Last week, Pakistan launched airstrikes on Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. Cities like Kabul, the capital, and Kandahar were hit, and skirmishes erupted along the two nations’ nearly 2,600 km border, known as the Durand Line. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has declared, with tentative backing from the United States, that his country is now in “open war” with the Taliban after running out of patience with the regime amidst escalating border disputes. 

Border tensions between the two nations have been high since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021. The Taliban does not formally recognize the Durand Line, claiming that the 1893 border drawn during the Anglo-Russian Great Game divides ethnically Pashtun communities. This has led to 75 clashes between Afghan and Pakistani forces since the United States and NATO forces withdrew from Kabul in 2021. Additionally, Pakistan has experienced increased terror attacks by the Pakistan Taliban (TPP) and separatist groups in the Balochistan border region. Fighting was halted by a ceasefire mediated by Turkey and Qatar in October of last year. Yet, the ceasefire has not held. 

The eruption of tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan underscores the extremely tense relations between Kabul and its neighborhoods. While relations with Pakistan occupy the headlines today, the Taliban has also seen a souring of relations with its other Eastern neighbors: Tajikistan and China.

Tajikistan (and China) Take on the Taliban 

To the northwest of Afghanistan lies Tajikistan: landlocked, mountainous and poor. Animosity between Dushanbe and Kabul began in 1991, when Tajikistan gained independence from the Soviet Union. The new nation quickly disintegrated into civil war. Russian-backed government forces, headed by the still-in-power President Emomali Rahmon, faced off against the hodgepodge United Tajik Opposition (UTO). The Taliban supported and trained the Islamist wing of the UTO, leading to tensions between the two neighboring nations that lingered after the war ended in 1997. Currently, the main flashpoints are the smuggling of drugs into Tajikistan and Kabul’s support of Jamaat Ansarullah, a terror group established by citizens of Tajikistan to overthrow Rahmon’s secular government. 

The two adversaries were thrown together in 2022. Members of the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISK) launched several missiles into Tajikistan from Afghanistan. However, ISK is a rival of the Taliban, forcing Kabul to collaborate with Dushanbe against a shared threat. 

Despite this attempt at warming relations, signalling a period of “cold cooperation” between the two nations, attacks on Tajikistan from Afghan militant groups have not stopped. In November of last year, three Chinese gold miners working for a Chinese-owned company in southern Tajikistan were killed. Workers for the state-owned China Road and Bridge Cooperation were attacked just days after, with two workers killed. The Chinese government promptly ordered Chinese citizens to evacuate the Tajik-Afghan border regions. 

These attacks put Tajikistan in a difficult position, as its economy and infrastructure are increasingly reliant on support from China. Thus, President Rahmon ordered tighter border controls in the mountain region separating his nation from Afghanistan. The Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) also sent weapons to help Tajikistan secure its contentious border (the nation has also received aid from China, the U.S., and the EU) and protect Beijing’s interests. In response, the Taliban has pledged to cooperate with Tajikistan and continues to blame separatist movements, especially ISK, for the attacks. 

Conclusion

As Islamabad and Kabul enter into a sustained conflict, two things become clear: the Taliban has few friends, and Central Asian borders are a topic of endless contention. Tensions sparked over a century ago by Tsarist Russia and Great Britain’s geopolitical rivalries continue to create border chaos across Central Asia. Tajikistan and Afghanistan are no exception. Any more Afghan attacks on Tajik soil that embroil its benefactor, China, will certainly shatter the two nations’ fragile peace. 

Read more here:

• Alexander Palmer, Center for Strategic and International Studies 

• Bruce Pannier, Foreign Policy Research Institute 

• Yashraj Sharma, Al Jazeera