What an Iranian Future Looks Like After Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

After weeks of a tension-filled military escalation, America and Israel finally launched a full-on military strike against Iran. But beyond U.S.-Israeli interests, the attacks are also actively reshaping the future of Iran, especially given that the strikes have taken out Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader. Unsurprisingly, the death of a man who defined the Islamist regime has been speculated to be one of the biggest threats to the regime in its nearly 50 year history. It has also meant that the question of Iran’s future has become more uncertain than ever.

The fact that Mr. Khamenei would eventually have to step down has meant that the possibility of considering future Iranian leadership was an existing discussion. Individuals like Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the fallen leader, have been floated as a possible successor. Additionally, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself reportedly selected three candidates who could take his place during last June’s 12-day war. Yet, their names have not been made public.

But that discussion is also being had by the U.S., which has encouraged an outright government takeover from the Iranian public, going so far as to label the opportunity to do so as “probably the Iranian publics only chance for generations." These statements alone have made the U.S. position on the conflict incredibly clear, in that Trump is betting on public uprising as a way of reaffirming the strikes our military carried out. Such an idea doesn’t seem that outrageous, given the frail condition of Iran’s economy, alongside many other external factors that have created an environment for change that would parallel the most dramatic upheaval since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Yet like many U.S. attacks in the Middle East, there is worry that the strikes may have just created a power vacuum that yet another unstable and repressive government will inherit. In fact, particularly since the last wave of U.S. strikes on Iran in June, there have already been concerns that real power has been held in the hands of the Supreme National Security Council and the brutal network of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Extemp Analysis by: Roshan Shivnani

Question: How does the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei alter Iran’s political landscape?

AGD: Realistically, I think a narrative is the easiest way to take questions like these, especially given the amount of tragedy likely occurring inside Iran right now.

Background: Just a general explanation of the situation chronologically. I would explain the US-Israel strike, then the Ayatollah's death, and finally the future of Iran in question.

Answer: It’s contributed to a fundamental rise in instability 

3 Points

1. Rise of Interim-government Rule

2. Ascension of Security Groups like the IRGC

3. Elevated risk of internal crises

Analysis + Concluding Thoughts

The general answer here should be fairly self-explanatory, as most unexpected government shifts are followed by some form of instability. As for the points, I think the first is easiest to explain because in the vast majority of emergency government shifts an interim government comes in control: maybe use another country like Syria as an example. The second point is more Iran-specific, so make sure the A of the point explains the IRGC and how these military groups function. To make sure the third point is distinct I would likely discuss internal sentiment both politically and economically becoming crowded and have a more people-based approach. I think this question and points overall leaves solid room for strong impacts, which can be both physical violence and the more humanitarian need angle.

Read more here:

• Bel Trew, The Independent

• Giselle Ewing, CNN

• Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Brookings

• PBS