What the Blue Wave Reveals About Voter Priorities Ahead of the 2026 Midterms

November 11th, 2025
Christina Yang

A year after Democrats found themselves without a leader and with little power, recent elections gave them a burst of momentum. Notably, Democrats won gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, which were the only two states to elect governors this year. They also swept Pennsylvania’s state Supreme Court, California’s Proposition 50 battle, New York City’s mayoral election and ballot measures from Colorado to Maine. Overall, results showed that Democrats outperformed their margins from four years ago in suburbs, rural areas, and even areas heavily populated with military voters. This ‘blue wave’ has key implications ahead of the 2026 midterm elections and also reveals a great deal about the successful platforms on which Democrats ran.

Economic Issues

The recent Democratic success affirms the candidates’ decisions to run on economic-centered platforms. New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani ran a campaign focused on rent freeze, free buses and universal healthcare. New Jersey governor-elect Mikie Sherill campaigned on lowering utility costs, and Virginia governor-elect Abigail Spanberger emphasized the rising cost of living as Trump’s funding cuts have upended life for many of Virginia’s federal workers. Analyses of voter trends revealed that half of Virginia voters, most New Jersey voters, and over half of New York City voters said the economy and affordability was their top concern.

Trump Administration

Trump’s inability to deliver the economic turnaround that he promised last year already reflects a growing problem for the GOP heading into the midterm elections. More than 60% of voters in New Jersey and Virginia stated that they were “very angry and dissatisfied” with the current state of the country, speaking volumes about their attitudes toward the Trump administration. In fact, much of the Democratic success can also be attributed to campaigns that highlighted Trump’s policies as a major issue. Mamdani, Sherill and Spanberger all pointed to Trump as a reason for their states’ economic woes, and California’s Proposition 50 successfully framed their redistricting campaign as a way to push back on Trump.

The results also reflect a repudiation of Trump’s immigration policy and attacks on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) policies. An exit poll found that 90% of voters who supported New Jersey and Virginia’s democratic candidates said his anti-immigration policies had gone too far, and 70% of Mamdani voters said that the city should not comply with Trump’s immigration policies. Polls also show that Latino voters have moved significantly away from Trump. No Republican candidate won as high of a percentage of Latino voters as Trump did in 2024, but Spanberger and Sherill won Latinos by 2-to-1 margins this time. Furthermore, Sherill won all of the 10 counties heavily populated by Latinos, and flipped 3 that Trump had won previously. These results already have a lot of Republicans wondering how they can win these groups back in next year’s races.

2026 Midterms

The recent elections already kicked off next year’s battle for control of Congress. California’s Proposition 50 green-lit a new redistricting plan that would give Democrats five more House seats. Democrats in Virginia won nearly two-thirds of the House of Delegates, which keeps the party’s hope of redrawing districts there alive. Additionally, the three Democratic victories in the Pennsylvania Supreme Court allow the party to retain its edge in the court of such a key swing-state.

Still, polls show that the Democratic brand remains largely unpopular. At the same time, though, Trump’s approval ratings have dropped to 37%, the lowest yet. Interparty tensions also persist, as Mamdani is a Democratic socialist, while Sherill and Spanberger are moderate Democrats. Despite this, the recent blue wave suggests that Democrats are well-positioned to sweep the midterm elections, as Republicans struggle to mobilize support in a political climate shaped by Trump’s controversial policies.