Forced Servitude in Myanmar

November 18th, 2025
Harry Reitman

After getting beaten in battles throughout 2023 and early 2024, Myanmar's military junta had to make a drastic change. Last February, the regime rolled out a conscription policy that has changed the war: 17 batches of 4,000 to 5,000 recruits have been drafted since April 2024. For individuals like Maung Phyo, a 25-year-old rice farmer grabbed at gunpoint 500 miles from the front lines, there wasn't a choice available when it came to joining the war. Many analysts believed that forced recruitment would be ruinous for the junta, but that was not what happened.

To understand the Junta’s bet on conscription, you first have to understand how badly things were going for the military. In October 2023, the junta suffered a significant setback when the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched Operation 1027, an offensive that seized sizable territory in northern Shan State and far western Rakhine State. The losses were bad enough that by February 2024, military leadership enacted Myanmar's first conscription policy in decades, deploying the first batch of new soldiers to training in April.

But young men weren't lining up to volunteer, so forced abductions became the go-to recruitment method. Maung Phyo got captured while harvesting rice, had his head shaved and his belongings taken and then got handed a uniform and an ID number. In an interview after he deserted to Thailand, he described meeting guys who were abducted, formally drafted or poor men who were paid by richer conscripts to take their places. Those payments keep coming every month, so Myanmar's poorest now have a financial reason to stick around and fight.

Yet the strategy's working, at least on the battlefield. Instead of mass desertions, many recruits have gotten field promotions. Just months ago, the military mounted a major counteroffensive, retaking rebel-held spots like the town of Thin Gan Nyi Naung and a stretch of the Asian Highway. Maung Phyo's unit had 250 soldiers, but only 21 were conscripts, which means the military is using forced recruits as a small boost to manpower, rather than depending on them entirely.

The policy's also triggered a refugee crisis. Around 4 million Myanmar nationals now live in Thailand, many of whom are young men evading the draft. When Thit Paing got registered for the conscription lottery in May 2024, he bolted to the Thai border town of Mae Sot, but life there wasn't much better. He got slapped with a 185 USD fine for driving without a license (normally it's 15 USD), couldn't find work, and dealt with constant police shakedowns before joining a rebel group back in Myanmar.

Here's where China comes in. Beijing's been pressuring armed groups along its border to back off from pro-democracy movements, which basically ties one hand behind the resistance's back. Rebels have never had a manpower problem, as they've vastly more soldiers than guns, but now they're facing weapon and ammo shortages as Chinese support dries up. The junta gets both political support from China and fresh conscripts to replace casualties. The junta will grab its own citizens and throw them into combat to stay in power, even as thousands flee and international groups condemn it. For now, it's working militarily, but the long-term costs might be difficult to measure.