From Paralysis to Partnership: The EU–Mercosur Agreement Fully Explained

November 18th, 2025
Patrick Li

It’s an empirical truth that, as of right now, both the European Union and broader Latin America have felt the short end of Donald Trump's stick in the form of tariffs and various other threats; it is no secret that they are making a greater effort to draw closer. On November 9 and 10, the EU met with 33 countries that comprise the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) in Santa Marta. In the coming weeks, the Council of the EU and the European Parliament are likely to ratify a deal with Mercosur, an FTA bloc centered on Argentina and Brazil.

The deal, nearly a quarter of a century in the making, has recently been slowed by protectionist lobbies on both sides of the aisle, specifically from European farmers who fear that South American agriculture undercuts business. Yet, two things have shifted. First, the commission adopted new guidelines and measures to repatriate farmers for any potential losses, and has since agreed to make a bigger effort to inform them of the safeguards (a hotspot for debate, specifically the validity of these claims). Second, the war in Ukraine, in tandem with tensions reverberating from both China and Trump, has vastly underpinned the need for the EU to diversify its alliances. These arguments have gained ground. Most notably, “A year ago, the council was divided,” says a commission official, but “now the situation is more blurred.” While there is ardent opposition in parliament—most notably that of Austria, France, Ireland and Poland—few expect a firm rejection there.

The current proposed full partnership agreement with Mercosur, which specifically includes clauses on political cooperation, currently requires approval by 42 national and regional parliaments in Europe. On a lighter note, the trade part has been split off into an interim agreement, which the council needs to pass only by a qualified majority of EU governments. It solidifies and expands an existing commercial relationship worth approximately $150 billion a year. The deal removes tariffs on approximately 90% of trade in goods on both sides, although this is spread over 12 years. In a study published in July, the commission calculates that the agreement will boost EU exports by €49bn ($56bn) and those of Mercosur by €9bn.

European officials think the accord will halt China’s encroachment on Europe’s market share in Mercosur, which also includes Paraguay and Uruguay. For Mercosur, it is a breakthrough for a bloc that has remained fairly closed to the outside world. Brazil’s President, Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, likes to stress Brazil’s membership of the BRICS grouping with China, Russia and India, among others. The EU agreement “gives Brazil an alternative to the BRICS”, says Matias Spektor of the Fundação Getulio Vargas, a university. Brazil will use it to promote a national brand tarnished in some quarters by association with Vladimir Putin, he adds. For Argentina’s president, Javier Milei, who owed his election victory last month in part to Mr Trump’s financial support, the agreement might make it harder for him to carry out his occasional threats to leave Mercosur.

Regardless, a passage would mark a decisive geopolitical realignment—one that reshapes not just trade flows, but the balance of global influence across three continents.

Extemp Analysis: by Andrew Lu

Question: Is the EU-Mercosur trade deal succeeding in boosting their respective economies?

First, I want to note that this topic has multiple questions to be asked, like what are the impacts, will it last, is it beneficial for X party, etc. Pranav Kothur had a similar topic in his 2025 NSDA IX final round speech.

AGD: Poke fun at world leaders - compare the trade deal to something funny. My personal take is a sad story and their life is being made much better with this deal.

Background: analyze the question here, you first need to define Mercosur, as a lot of people do not know what that is. Then you need to explain the trade deal, what it does, when it was signed, and how much it is for.

SOS: How many people in poverty could this save, or simply how many people in poverty and this deal could save them… (along those lines)

Answer: (you can say no, but generally) Yes, because it fills the gaps of the current economies.

Substructure: personally, I think expectation verification works well here, although status quo change is also very competent.

Points:

Increases direct trade - no brainer, just talk about the specifics and why this matters. Rhetoric.
Ensures Food Security - talk about how the deal secures both cheaper food for Europe and better food security for South America
Promotes Small Businesses - talk about how the deal promotes small business and how that is not only good for econ but for innovation too.

Hope you enjoyed the short analysis on the EU-Mercosur deal! Like I said before, you can always answer the question differently, but this should give you an idea of how to approach this question in the future.