Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan

Since October 7, 2023, the world has witnessed the death of over 67,000 Palestinians and the displacement of 90% of the Gazan population. With an injury count 10% higher than the pre-war population of Gaza, the Israel-Hamas war has maintained a daily death count exceeding that of all major conflicts in the 21st century.

Yet, as of Wednesday, seven months after the initial Israel-Hamas ceasefire was brokered and broken, US President Donald Trump has announced “war is over” in Gaza as he travels to Israel in expectation of the release of 20 hostages from Palestine.

The Ceasefire: Phase One

On September 29, President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unveiled and accepted the terms of the administration's 20-Point Plan, released in full by the White House on X. 

As ratified by both Hamas and the Israeli Cabinet last week, Phase One of the plan grants Israel 24 hours to withdraw 70% of currently occupied territory with the goal of making Gaza “a deradicalized terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbors.” Over the course of the ensuing 72 hours, Hamas is expected to release 20 living hostages from the total 48, says the White House. 

As of October 10, Israeli forces occupy just 53% of Gaza.

Image provided by the Council of Foreign Relations citing the White House

According to Vice President JD Vance, the Hamas-led delivery could happen “any moment now”  ahead of Monday’s deadline. In exchange, Israel is expected to release 250 prisoners serving life sentences and an additional 1,700 Palestinians detained over the course of the war.

Additionally, the plan entails the distribution of “full aid” to Gaza “without interference,” materializing in a daily six hundred trucks worth of aid. The White House has since defined full aid as the “rehabilitation of infrastructure (water, electricity, sewage), rehabilitation of hospitals and bakeries, and entry of necessary equipment to remove rubble and open roads.” 

This phase will be carried out in the newly opened Rafah Crossing with Egypt, where minimal Israeli troops still reside. To facilitate deliveries and the broader ceasefire, the United States has deployed two hundred troops which will reportedly remain directly outside of Gaza.

But as history warns, this ceasefire is the first step of many.

Future Phases

Although Netanyahu claimed “tremendous victories” in his Sunday night address, the ensuing 19 phases of the Trump Administration’s plan aren’t guaranteed to grant Israel a complete win.

The plan requires an agreement that Israeli forces will neither occupy nor annex the Gaza Strip, demanding no Palestinians be militarily forced to leave Gaza. Moreover, the strip will “be redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza who have suffered more than enough,” as point two of the plan details.

Most critically, Gaza will transition to the governance of a technocratic and apolitical Palestinian committee “which will operate under an international board headed by Trump,” referred to by the President as the “Board of Peace”. The Trump Administration has also elected former British Prime Minister Tony Blair to the board with an undefined but “central” role. The board will be dedicated to building and monitoring Gaza’s redevelopment. 

The present-day governing body of the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority, will concurrently undergo a reform program in preparation.

The plan concluded by affirming American plans to “establish a dialogue” between Israel and Hamas “for peaceful and prosperous coexistence.” 

Though the plausibility of an end to the Israel-Hamas war has been questioned, with an upwards of 66% of Israelis—13 percentage points higher than this time last year—confirming a desire to end the war and an acceptance of a two-state solution, let's hope it will.

Read More Here:

1. Jeffery Sachs and Sybil Fares, Al Jazeera

2. Mariel Ferragamo, Council on Foreign Relations

3. Neta Crawford, Brown University

Extemp Analysis by Sophia Amundgaard:

Question: Will the Gaza ceasefire hold? 

AGD: I’d recommend going topical. Al Jazeera and Amnesty International offer fantastic resources for heart stories. If you’re going to attempt to utilize humor in the introduction (which I’d caution against), I’d urge you to refrain from making jokes about Israeli or Palestinian civilians, instead, target Trump. Otherwise, try to employ any humor in your on-tops. 

Background: There’s a lot to be understood about this conflict. I’d recommend sourcing the CFR global conflict tracker. Without spoiling your points if you choose a historic route, I’d recommend pointing to the March 2025 failed ceasefire. However, since the war is so universally known, there's less extensive background work to be done. So, (very) briefly outline the history of the conflict and focus more so on Trump’s 20 point plan which is currently at hand. 

Answer: This question is nearly impossible to answer. However, it therefore leaves room for many different types of answers. Here are some paths you can take:

• No, the circumstances for historical failures still exist today

• Yes, circumstances have changed, making ceasefire/ending the war the only option

• Yes/No, specific details of the plan will be in/effective

Feel free to be more creative due to the nature of the question.

3 Points: If we adopt the answer “No, the circumstances for historical failures still exist today”, point structure will look something like this:

A: Contributor to past failures 

B: Parallel to the status quo

C: Significance in ending the war

Analysis + Concluding Thoughts: Answering definitive questions like these is incredibly difficult for any level of extemper. The most effective strategy I can offer is to be technical—examine the plan and examine the past. Those are the only blueprints we have to determine the success of today’s ceasefire.