Soy Importante: U.S. Soybean Industry Faces Disaster

October 7th, 2025
Blake McFalls

For years, Donald Trump was in a political sweet spot with rural Americans, where white farmers of the Midwest consistently cast their ballots for the Republican Party. However, Trump’s trade and foreign aid policies have undermined the livelihoods of this very constituency, in large part due to his harm to the American soybean industry.

Every year, the US produces 114.7 million metric tons of soybeans and exports 52.21 million metric tons of soybeans. Safe to say, US soybean producers are export-reliant to a certain degree. China buys about 51% of US soybean exports, making China an integral actor in supporting US soybean producers. Under the Trump presidency, the link has been abruptly cut. Due to Trump’s tit-for-tat tariff war with China, US exports to China now face 23% tariffs, which has increased the price of US soybeans by $2 per bushel. Previously, US soybeans were 80-90 cents cheaper per bushel than South American counterparts, meaning the recent price hikes make the US uncompetitive in the Chinese market. The harm to the US soybean industry is no longer theoretical, but present. In this harvest, China has not bought a single bushel of US soybeans, replacing them with South American soybeans.

However, some of the hardships US soybean farmers face are not tied to the Trump Administration. Global soybean prices have plummeted in recent years, causing the average Illinois soybean farmer to run a $64 loss per acre to continue selling soybeans. However, the ways farmers have responded to global price drops may indicate how they will respond to Chinese tariffs as well. In order to maintain a commercial presence in China, soybean farmers may force themselves to run even larger losses by reducing their prices. While the best option for soybean farmers in this situation is to cut back production, the volatility of the market makes adaptability difficult. Zooming in, soybean farmers have already set up this year’s harvest and begun to cultivate large portions of projected output. This leaves farmers with two options: store the soybeans and wait until prices increase, or sell at a tariff-exacerbated loss.

The fall of the US soybean industry is a political disaster for Trump. The trade war, along with smaller measures, such as the termination of USAID, has put the Trump Administration at the center of blame. Worse, Trump continues to exacerbate the crisis. Trump recently bailed out the Argentine government, allowing Argentina to remove its export tax. By reducing the cost for Chinese soybean importers, Argentina has been able to sell 2.5 million tons of soybeans to China. This is a horrendous look; in essence, Trump bailed out the US soybean industry’s replacement.

In response to the uncertainty felt by soybean farmers, Trump assured farmers by stating that tariff revenues would go toward keeping farmers afloat. Yet, as American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland argues, this money will not achieve its associated goals, as it does not address the underlying issue of the weakening demand for US soybeans. Ironically, the lack of demand is a result of the tariffs that will be paid for farm relief.

Along with Trump’s approval rating, the soybean crisis puts the GOP at risk of losing its Congressional majority. For instance, Iowa’s first congressional district is a major soybean producer. Yet, the GOP incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces a challenge from Democrat Christina Bohanna, and the race is considered a toss-up. If swing voters blame Republicans for economic hardships, the party is in big trouble for the midterms.

Soybean farmers are key members of the US agricultural heartland. These farmers have been jeopardized by constant events out of their control, threatening their livelihoods and abilities to make ends meet. If the government continues to take improper action to mitigate disasters, every day will be worse than the last for soybean farmers.