An Islamic NATO?

September 23rd, 2025
Blake McFalls

Israel’s wars against Iran’s Axis of Resistance have not spared the Arab Gulf states. Israel recently carried out strikes on Hamas leadership in Qatar, breaking security taboo in the Middle East. It is also a sign that the US is unable to rein in Israel, potentially nullifying American security guarantees for the Arab Gulf states. In response, the Gulf states have been creating a front against Israel to deter future aggression.

Leading up to the strikes, Qatar increased its military buildup. It shot up its purchases of 4.5-generation fighter jets from the West and SY-400 short-range ballistic missiles from China. Qatar’s prioritization of security in an environment of volatility is not exclusive to Doha, but a broader trend across the Middle East. Since October 7th, 2023, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—a diplomatic alliance comprising the six Gulf states—has tacitly shifted its focus to security, whether this be conflict resolution, or now, militarization. Following the strikes, the GCC started utilizing its dormant Unified Military Command for intelligence sharing and pledging more work for the Gulf Joint Task Force for the warning against ballistic missiles.

Recently, the alliance has shifted dramatically following the activation of its joint defense mechanism. Whereas NATO’s Article 5 is active as long as the organization exists, the GCC’s binding defense pact must be manually activated by member states. This rarely happens, but Gulf leaders agreed that Israel’s strike on Qatar was a cautionary tale of poor deterrence, and thus, it must be. Leaders repeated the same phrase many associate with NATO’s Article 5: an attack on one is an attack on all. Effectively, this ensures that respective military buildup can be collectively used to act as an Israel deterrent.

The Gulf states seem to be forming a NATO-like alliance, which could be expected given the relatively similar interests and perceptions shared by each country. What was unexpected, was the introduction of Pakistan into the alliance. Saudi Arabia signed a defense pact with Pakistan, once again using NATO’s language, where “an attack on one is an attack on both”. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are almost perfectly matched. Since the 1960s, in exchange for Saudi Arabian energy, Pakistan has provided military equipment and training for Saudi Arabia’s armed forces, which have helped Saudi Arabia achieve its regional aims, such as its 2015 incursion in Yemen.

The Saudi-Pakistani defense pact has the potential to expand. Pakistan’s Defense Minister, Khawaja Asif, and Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, have both supported the idea of incorporating the rest of the GCC into the pact and creating a joint Arab security force in order to fend off Israel.

Pakistan brings the necessary items to the Gulf table. Iran’s main justification for developing a nuclear weapon was to counteract Israel’s nuclear hegemony in the Middle East. With security guarantees, Pakistan puts Saudi Arabia, along with other potential gulf states, under its nuclear umbrella. This balances nuclear control in the region without putting a nuclear weapon in the hands of a volatile and rash Iran. A similar system works in NATO, where the US puts a large share of NATO members under its nuclear umbrella due to collective deterrence requirements.

The parallels between a growing Islamic defense alliance and NATO are apparent, and Pakistani officials are pouncing on them. Asif furthered the country’s goals at collective deterrence by tossing the term “Islamic NATO” in recent summits, which has been supported by the gulf states and Egypt. While the alliance would likely not include Iran and its allies, it would reshape Asian geopolitics. India’s shift toward the Gulf states since October 7th would be put into question, as Pakistan incorporates the Gulf into its security paradigm, one historically aggressive to India. Of course, the alliance’s formation itself shows the Gulf’s disinterest in increasing support for the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations with Israel.

Israel is trying to destroy Hamas in whatever way and wherever it can, but its strike on Qatar was a catastrophic miscalculation. The Gulf has been pushed to the edge, and it is now forming a binding, united front against Israel’s assault on regional stability. As long as Israel chooses careless escalation over measured diplomacy, Israel will become the Middle East’s Soviet Union that prompted the rise of NATO itself.