The Philippines’ China Dilemma

September 30th, 2025
Sophia Amundgaard

During CCP President Xi Jinping’s 2018 visit, Filipino media was flooded by a wave of memes drawing physical comparisons between Xi and Winnie the Pooh. Though just a year later, Xi referred to the nation as a “dear friend,” it seems he’s still reeling from the blow.

In fact, this time, he’s delivering it. On September 16th, China’s coast guard reported the “ramming” of a Filipino fishery vessel against two of its ships in the ever disputed Scarborough Shoal, marking the second collision since August. Filipino officials further noted Chinese engagement in water canon attacks which resulted in “significant damage,” said the Philippine Coast Guard.

Just one month prior, a parallel crash produced the fatality of two Chinese personnel and the injury of one Filipino.

But these wrecks haven’t been anomalies. Since his 2022 election victory, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has repeatedly rejected predecessor Rodrigo Duterte’s appeasement stance towards Chinese foreign policy. Accordingly, since early 2023, the China Coast Guard (CCG) and militia have utilized non-kinetic tactics to harass the missions of the Philippine Coast Guard.

But from the risk of near collisions to the employment of blinding lasers, it seems the CCG was just getting started. In wake of the recent clashes, Chinese spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang warned Manila to "immediately stop any provocative acts before it's too late,” forcing Marcos Jr. to make a difficult decision between protecting his nation’s territory and avoiding direct conflict.

Even so, the latter may be inevitable. Conflict between the two nations has been escalating for years.

Context

The root of the Sino-Filipino conflict can be directly tied to the lack of enforcement of UNCLOS, giving China unabated access to the South China Sea.

Signed in 1982 and adopted in force in 1994, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is often deemed the “constitution for the oceans” due to its framework defining ocean activities. Most notably, UNCLOS establishes a semi-universially recognized Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)—the 200 nautical mile maritime distance from a coastal country's baseline wherein the nation exhibits its rights to sovereign practice.

Despite signing the law, Chinese policy makers have rejected the complete fortitude of EEZs in the South China Sea, marked most notably by the establishment of its "nine-dash line” pictured below, which asserts Chinese sovereignty over the overlapping territories of nations such as the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia.

The Chinese nine-dash line as provided by the CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

Though, in 2016, the international tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled the nine-dash line lacks legal basis under UNCLOS, China continues to enforce it, taking a toll on the Filipino economy.

The Philippines has one of the largest marine jurisdictions in the world, covering over 2.2 million square kilometers. This land is critical, with more than 3.8% of the Philippine national GDP and 5% of national eco payment attributed to the maritime industry functioning in EEZ territory.

Generalized conflict in the South China Sea has global implications, the region facilitates more than $3tr USD in shipments annually. Although recent escalations pose a risk to the economic safety of Filipinos, they also threaten the risk of further conflict as is a common thread among other nations such as Taiwan experiencing territorial incursions from China.

But unlike in the 2017 USS Fitzgerald collision, the United States isn’t steering this conflict; It is fighting to prevent it from happening in the future.

America’s Role

Mere days before the most recent collision, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed American support for Filipino EEZ protection, claiming the US “stands with the Philippines,” refuting China's “destabilizing plans” in the South China Sea.

Even so, the US has yet to provide aid beyond the diplomatic for Marcos Jr., pushing the US House committee on China to strongly urge Washington to follow through on Rubio’s promises by monetarily supporting the Philippines to counter Beijing's “aggressive and destabilising actions” in the South China Sea.

According to Reuters, The State Department leveraged their dramatically reduced 2026 budget for International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement in an effort to reinforce the standings of allies such as the Philippines and Taiwan against China.

Though Xi Jinping may have longstanding conflicts with the Filipino media, his attack on the nation’s economic sovereignty has reached far beyond a meme, leaving real questions about what may come next.