Pakistan and Afghanistan’s Fragile Ceasefire

October 21st, 2025
Sarah Kumar

For years, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been plagued by artillery blasts, airstrikes and plumes of smoke, an unfortunate return to the conflict between the regions. Thankfully, the two governments declared a new ceasefire after our reporting on the crisis last week. The ceasefire, mediated by Qatar and Turkey, was made in hopes of “restoring calm” and “lasting peace.”

That tension boiled over earlier this month, when Afghanistan accused Pakistan of launching air strikes inside its borders—including one in which local officials alleged three cricketers were killed along with “dozens” of civilians in Paktika province. But those claims were denied by Pakistan’s Defense Ministry, which said its strikes were confined to militant training facilities belonging to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The TTP, blamed for hundreds of attacks over the past year, has become Islamabad’s most pressing national security problem, a nuisance Islamabad alleges Taliban leadership has done too little to curb.

The frontier is volatile despite the truce. The reports of continued shelling and small-arms fire, which Afghan officials say occurred in some areas of Spin Boldak and Khost, suggests that the deal could unravel. Analysts say both sides are unwilling to completely withdraw forces stationed at the front, concerned about potential fresh attacks.

The fighting has already taken a terrible toll. Monitors have reported that a minimum of 36 civilians are dead and hundreds more wounded since fighting erupted on October 10. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Afghan families displaced by the fighting now have their settlements in Pakistan under mass eviction orders that Pakistani authorities have begun to act on.

For many observers, the crisis is a lesson in how fast a historic alliance has come undone. Pakistan was for many years the main source of support for the Taliban after the US withdrawal in 2021, but that relationship has been replaced by open hostility as a result of mounting mistrust, fueled by cross-border insurgencies and economic duress. Some regional analysts have cautioned that unless the two countries move beyond short-term inclement, the battle has the potential to escalate into a protracted proxy war.

Although the ink on the Doha agreement is barely dry, peace still looks like a long shot. As history has proven repeatedly on this rugged frontier, ceasefires rarely last long.