Meet the Balkans: A Fun-Sized Russia and Ukraine

Ever since the Russian invasion of Ukraine over two years ago, the world has focused on Russia as the main aggressor in Europe. Indeed, through starting a war merely to gain land, Russian President Vladimir Putin became the reincarnation of a type of leader thought to have gone extinct after the end of the world wars in Europe: the imperialist dictator intent on conquering neighboring states to expand his own. 

Just like an extinct creature brought back to life, the current environment is not something that Putin can survive. At least, not alone. While the world watches, Putin is creating a mini-Russia, meant to cause more chaos in Europe and the world. In a near identical move to Russia’s buildup of forces along Ukraine’s border, the country of Serbia in September of last year made the decision to build up forces along its border with the semi-recognized state of Kosovo [KOH-so-voh], potentially threatening a Russia-style invasion.

Serbia backed off weeks later under immense pressure from NATO. But the incident raised tensions in the notoriously unstable Balkans, and could easily happen again, this time with support from Russia- potentially exploding into another concurrent war in Europe.

Believe it or not, Serbia isn’t even content with taking control of Kosovo. Republika Srpska [reh-POO-blih-kah SERP-skah], a semi-autonomous region of Bosnia and Herzegovina, wants to secede and join Serbia. The West does not want this to happen. Russia does. Thus, the region is ripe for conflict far above the capacity of the states in question, a conflict potentially involving the world’s great powers. And it could shift balances of power thousands of miles away, changing the scope of geopolitics all over the world.

History (Taylor’s Version)

But let’s back up a bit on the historical timeline, and begin with the basics. For this article, we’ll go with Britannica's definition of the Balkans- Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia- the countries geographically within the Balkan Peninsula. (Note: sometimes Greece and Turkey are included too.) When we write ‘Western Balkans’, we’ll use the EU definition, and say it is all the countries in the Balkans that are not members of the EU- Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, Morth Macedonia, and Serbia. 

But to understand the Balkans’ present-day struggles, we need to understand where they came from. The Balkans have a rich, distinct history- excuse us for being a WHAP textbook for a second- and was under Ottoman rule for most of the Early Modern period, creating very individualized little nation-states. But after the 1877-1878 Russo-Turkish war (the Ottomans lost), many of these territories were divided up or altered as the Ottomans lost influence- Serbia and Montenegro, for instance, gained complete independence, but Austria had taken over Bosnia & Montenegro. Long story short, territorial tensions (including the Balkan Wars of 1912 and 1913) eventually sparked WWI, where a Bosnian Serb assassinated the heir to the Austrian throne (who, remember, controls Bosnia at this time). Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, and your actual WHAP textbook can tell you the rest. 

WWI caused massive economic and humanitarian displacement in the Balkans, especially in Serbia, where nearly a full quarter of their population perished. Post WWI, the borders of states in the Balkans completely changed (Yugoslavia was created from Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, etc). As you can imagine, this constant changing of borders and the continuous displacement of people from the two World Wars created the conditions necessary for ethnic tensions to break out in the worst ways possible, especially under the Soviet-supported communist regimes after WWII. 

From 1918 to 1992, Yugoslavia, also referred to as the Kingdom of the Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes, gradually adhered to a Communist regime- but distinctly, it had a policy of nonalignment, and wasn’t usually regarded as a USSR ally.  

During the fall of communism in the early 1990s, Yugoslavia’s many ethnic and religious groups became wracked with instability, eventually turning into what’s referred to today as the Yugoslav Wars. The alliance of different administrative regions, namely Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Macedonia, started to fail. First Slovenia and Croatia declared independence. Then, Serbia declared war on the two. Bosnia tried to secede too, and was met with the same declaration of war. In April of 1992, during the dissolution of Yugoslavia and the various wars that followed, Serbia began an ethnic cleansing of Bosniaks, a largely Muslim ethnic group residing mostly in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but also in the neighboring states. Not even 50 years after the atrocities of World War II, concentration camps made a re-appearance, this time to contain Muslims. Despite UN attempts to protect Bosniak enclaves, Serbs massacred over eight thousand ‘battle age’ men in Srebrenica in July 1995, sparking international outrage and accusations of genocide against Bosniaks. The continuation of a genocide against Bosniaks prompted NATO to initiate air strikes, and the Dayton Peace Accords eventually ended the fighting (kinda…). Even three decades removed from the wars in the Balkans, borders in the region don’t often reflect ethnic boundaries, and tensions remain. It was because of these controversial borders that conflict over the ownership of territory arose.

Kosovo Can’t Quite Shake It (Serbia) Off 

Kosovo, a province of Serbia consisting of over 90% ethnic Albanians, declared independence from Serbia in 2008 after the breakdown of autonomy negotiations (the Ahtisaari plan, where Kosovo would gain self-governance under the EU). Within Kosovo, domestic politics remains fractured among Kosovo Serbs and Kosovo Albanians, and international recognition remains questionable. Western countries such as the United States and most of the European Union recognize Kosovo as an independent country, while most Eastern powers do not. Since China and Russia have vetoes on the UN Security Council, membership in the UN remains a pipe dream. 

Presently, Kosovo is generally considered a pro-West ally, since it submitted an application for EU membership and is mostly protected by the US. By any reasonable definition, it is a separate country and has been for years. But Serbia does not agree, and is doing everything possible to remind everyone of that fact. It frequently threatens to invade Kosovo, and nearly carried through on that threat last September after their aforementioned troop build ups on their southern border led to…nothing.

Kosovo has its own multi-party parliamentary democratic republic, with a President being the head of state, and the Prime Minister being the head of government. National elections are held every four years, with the country being rated as Partly Free by the Freedom House. 

Republika Srpska: You Need to Calm Down

Now, within Bosnia & Herzegovina, Republika Srpska is quite the opposite- it’s a territory that doesn’t just want to join Serbia, but is also far more pro-Russian than pro-West. Republika Srpska’s declaration of independence in 1992 was considered to be one of the causes of the Bosnian war amid the collapse of the USSR. 

At the moment, Republika Srpska is also recognized as a formal entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina (but NOT independent, unlike Kosovo!) by the EU and the US. It’s also rated Partly Free by the Freedom House. Bosnia and Herzegovina is split into two autonomous regions- the actual country (called the Federation), and Republika Srpska, who both help administer a region in between called the Brčko District. 

The Dayton Peace Accords of 1995 that first established Republika Srpska is also responsible for the creation of one of the most intricate and complicated administrative systems in the world. Ethnically, the Federation is mostly Bosnian Muslims and Croats, while the Republika Srpska is primarily Serbian (Orthodox Christian). There’s (strangely) three presidents governing the whole country- one from each of the three main ethnic nations- and political parties are nearly entirely divided based on ethnicity. However, each individual region is highly autonomous, with their own parliament, ministries, and Prime Minister. 

So now that we’ve taken you through a Wikipedia speed-run, it’s finally time for the current events. 

Srpska President Milorad Dodik Knows How It Goes All Too Well

While Republika Srpska is not an independent country, the region’s current ethnically Serbian President, Milorad Dodik, certainly acts like it is. Just a few days ago the US sanctioned key officials who promoted “Republika Srpska Day,” as Republika Srpska was as close to establishing an independence day without actually declaring it as one could possibly be..

One could reasonably wonder what the problem with this is. After all, at least there isn’t a war. However, the controversial holiday speaks to a larger conflict. Bosnia and Herzegovina, perhaps more than any other European state, is deeply divided domestically. The central government in Sarajevo has little control under the Bosnian constitution of Republika Srpska, and this lends to the region being highly independently minded. This could be perhaps compared to the United States before the American Civil War, where, due to limited federal power, people thought of their state first and their country second.

Dodik often threatens to secede from Bosnia as a whole. His impetus for comes in the idea that the government in Sarajevo is not serving Bosnian Serbs. The arguments for this come in several forms; Islamophobia is certainly a factor, as most ethnic Bosniaks are Muslim; economic troubles have exacerbated domestic tensions; but most of all, the Republika Srpska independence movement was encouraged by other actors. This charge comes down to two countries: Serbia, who Republika Srpska would likely join with in the event of independence, and the notorious infiltrator of politics all over Europe: Russia.

Republika Srpska…I Knew You Were Trouble (When You Made Your Own Region)

The conflict over Bosnia and Herzegovina goes far beyond the borders of the nation, or even the Balkans as a whole. It is a conflict which has drawn in great powers on both sides of the ideological spectrum. That sounds like a great thing for the country itself! (nervous laugh)

In response to Dodik’s threats over independence, the United States significantly increased their presence in the main part of Bosnia. They also started to fly F-16s over Republika Srpska. This had the permission of the central government, but of course not of Republika Srpska, further tearing the interests of the two sides apart.

Serbia, for its part, is in the midst of doing literally everything it possibly can in order to further separate Republika Srpska from the central Bosnian government. The Serbian government itself declared, in a not-at-all conspicuous statement titled ‘Serbia will never turn its back on Republika Srpska’ , that Serbia would provide “even more significant economic support” to Republika Srpska because the Western world was doing everything it could “to show that Republika Srpska cannot survive.” The Serbian President, Aleksandar Vucic, minced no words when he declared that Serbia “will never forget or renounce its people.” Might we remind you, he is literally referring to people of another sovereign country, a country recognized by literally every nation on Earth.

While Republika Srpska has never officially seceded from Bosnia, it has made some serious moves away from the country. Milorad Dodik, with the support of the Parliament of Republika Srpska, effectively declared that decisions of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the highest court in Bosnia, as well as decrees from the Office of the High Representative, an international envoy tasked with keeping the peace in Bosnia, no longer apply in Republika Srpska. The fact that Dodik was bold enough to directly defy Sarajevo in such a tactile way speaks to how much support he has. And it is no secret that a large portion of that support comes directly from the Kremlin.

Milorad Dodik openly supports Russia. Meanwhile, Russia openly supports Dodik and his autonomous region. This is, quite understandably, a huge concern for Bosnia and Herzegovina, as it does not want to become the next Ukraine, where claims about ethnic and cultural ties are used as justification to start a conflict. Even more concerningly, Russia has provided Republika Srpska with all of the tools it could possibly need to split from Bosnia and Herzegovina, whether peacefully or . . . not.

Using its powerful UN Security Council veto, Russia has stopped confirmation of judges onto the Constitutional Court, an action which obstructs the functioning of the Dayton Accords. Russia also gives resources to politicians such as Dodik, which helps them to move towards secessionist action. This is part of a coordinated effort of the Kremlin to prop up politicians that divide Europe from within, potentially destabilizing their response to Russia. In effect, Milorad Dodik has become one of Russia’s many Trojan Horses, and, quite possibly, its most successful yet.

NATO, worried about what Dodik could do to Bosnia, and even more that Russia could expand its influence further west into Europe, has racked up its support of Sarajevo. The organization already has bases in the capital, and due to increasing tensions, has been doubling down on its support for Bosnia by sending even more resources to those bases. NATO realizes that perhaps more than any other nation in all of Europe, Bosnia and Herzegovina is uniquely vulnerable to falling under Russia’s sphere of influence. At the same time, the central government is, uniquely, pro-West. This puts Bosnia apart from other countries in Europe that are partially or totally in opposition to NATO, and is a direct result of the strange nature of Bosnian politics. (cough cough THREE?? PRESIDENTS???) 

NATO has a chance to advance its interests in a region which does not support it, namely Republika Srpska, and it is not going to pass it over.

Ironically, though, NATO might be tearing Bosnia apart more than Russia or Serbia ever could. That is because NATO wants to see Bosnia and Herzegovina join the organization as a full member. This, quite possibly, could tilt Bosnia towards the edge, and it has the support of the government in Sarajevo. Milorad Dodik could quite easily argue that the central government is ignoring the interests of Serbs, and he would not entirely be wrong. Bosnian Serbs overwhelmingly would like to stay neutral militarily, as they have strong cultural ties to Serbia and Russia but economic ties to the EU, as most of their exports go there. Since secessionist rhetoric has earned Republika Srpska sanctions from the US and Britain, Dodik does not have universal support. But should Sarajevo make such a drastic move, that could change rapidly.

The K in Kosovo stands for “Karma is my Boyfriend”

In one of the worst incidents of violence between Kosovo and Serbia since the end of the Balkan wars in 1999, an armed clash between Serbian paramilitary forces and a Kosovo police patrol left one police officer and three Serbs dead last September. Just a few days later, Serbians built up their military presence on the border, the escalation we mentioned at the beginning of this article. 

But during the same time period, and before, Kosovo’s prime minister, Albin Kurti, has continued to deny his ethnic Serbian population’s wishes for greater autonomy. Thus far, he’s settled for joint administer of Kosovo’s northern municipalities, where Serbs are in the majority- his government provides law enforcement and justice, and Serbia supplies healthcare and education. Not quite as complicated as Republika Srpska, but it certainly comes close. 

Unfortunately, rising military tensions and this continued refusal on the part of Kosovo’s Albanian majority to acknowledge the needs of their Serbian counterparts led to the Crisis Group discovering earlier this year that over 10% of all of Kosovo’s Serbs have emigrated over the past year. That’s extremely worrying, because it could threaten Kosovo’s most plausible path to being recognized by Serbia- namely, giving its Serbs significant self-rule in exchange for recognition by the country. That would set back all the decades of progress that Kosovo has worked to achieve. 

At the same time, Kosovo’s Serbs could grow more unpredictable. That’s because while nationalist Serb militias have worked closely with Serbia’s government in the past, President Vucic’s grip on the politics of northern Kosovo seem to be slipping. In the fall of 2023, Serbia experienced two mass shootings, one of which was in Belgrade, the country’s capital, leading to widespread anger and nation-wide protests for weeks over the country’s massive security failure. As he concentrates more on domestic issues, it’s likely going to lead to more incidents like the one in September of last year, where Serbian paramilitaries went rogue. That inherently will create more danger for Kosovo’s government as they seek to navigate ethnic tensions, while also trying to push for their own independence. 

Russia’s Social Media Has Got the Balkans Enchanted…To Run Away

Like always, Russia’s influence in the region isn’t limited to just diplomacy. They’re also actively spreading disinformation on Balkan social media through the expansion of Kremlin-backed media. 

More specifically, RT (Russia Today), one of the Kremlin’s most prominent news outlets, announced recently that they’re planning to expand their Serbia wing into the Bosnian market this year- worrying, because it’s an outlet that’s spread lies about Serbia’s true role in the Srebrenica genocide and continues to promote pro Ukraine-war propaganda. 

"The arrival of media financed by the Russian government to the territory of a country toward which it has a negative attitude and is against the NATO alliance, can set back the relations of Bosnia and Herzegovina with its international partners.”

• Enver Halilovic, former ambassador of Bosnia and Herzegovina to Russia, February 13, 2024

As Russia tries to deepen the divide between Republika Srpska, its ally, and the rest of Bosnia & Herzegovina through media dissemination, it becomes more crucial than ever that citizens in the region stay politically aware of what they’re consuming. 

Looking a few hundred kilometers away in Kosovo, we see a similar conspiracy. Not only did a report on disinformation find fourteen publications on Kosovo media that tried to harm Kosovo state security, but 44 articles were found that spread foreign Russian propaganda as well. Like Bosnia and Herzegovina, one of Russia’s goals is to dissuade Kosovo from joining Western organizations (in this case, the EU) and potentially provoke conflict in the region.

The Balkans are Entering Their Speak Now Era! That’s Not Good. 

For the people that don’t know what a ‘Speak Now Era’ is, good for you! It’s one of Taylor Swift’s most chaotic and exciting eras. But in the case of the Balkans, that might not necessarily be a good thing. 

The conflict between Russia and the West is nothing new for the 21st century. But for the second time in less than five years, it has the potential to reshape European security, and spark a new global conflict in the Balkans. Specifically, in the form of a civil war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. We’ll expand on this in a second.

First, it's honestly not likely that true military conflict or aggression will break out between Kosovo and Serbia anytime soon, because the risks outweigh the gains. For one, Kosovo is a huge NATO protectorate- there are NATO peacekeepers currently stationed in the country. NATO, despite Trump’s and Putin’s claims, is still very active- and very deadly to its enemies. Countries in the Balkans like Serbia are relatively unlikely to challenge NATO as a result. But also, despite everything we’re hearing from people like Putin or Vucic, it’s pretty clear they’re empty threats. Like we mentioned earlier, Vucic is already facing domestic unrest over the status of Serbia’s security. He’s not going to risk further economic or military instability that a war against Kosovo would bring, not just because of the inherent costs of war, but also because it would forever cut off economic ties with the EU, which Serbia still relies on. Finally, Russia is extremely occupied with the war in Ukraine- in the case of a war with Kosovo, Serbia would require Russian support that could be few and far in between. 

But that’s definitely not the case in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In fact, we argue this is where conflict is most likely to happen in the next few years. Since many Bosnian Serbs support secession, it would be much easier for this to actually happen, since it would not require invading another country, which, as Russia showed us in Ukraine, is fraught with logistical nightmares. Those nightmares would instead fall into the court of Bosnia’s government.

More than perhaps any other, Bosnia and Herzegovina is a deeply sectarian state. That is the fault of Milorad Dodik, but some blame must also be given to Sarajevo. Milorad Dodik is right when he claims that Sarajevo has ignored the interests of Bosnian Serbs, and as long as Sarajevo continues to do so, it is reasonable to expect that the division in Bosnia will only grow. Both sides are encouraging this division, and the unity of Bosnia and Herzegovina is ultimately at the will of one man. Should Milorad Dodik wake up one day and decide to actually secede, very little would stand in his way. And as time goes on, it seems like it would make more and more sense for Dodik to carry through with his threats, and double down on a plan that could destroy not just Bosnia and Herzegovina, but draw in other actors from around Europe and the world. This would be especially concerning were Bosnia to join NATO, as that could cause an all out war that would devastate the entire world.

Even if an actual war never breaks out, countries in the region are likely to continue their gravitation towards Russia or the West. Serbia and Republika Srpska are likely to continue assembling under the Eastern umbrella- and they’re already doing so. Serbia recently announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding for a health agreement with Russia, and the deployment of Repellent, the Russian mobile anti-drone system for electronic jamming. Kosovo is likely to continue pushing for NATO membership, and to try and be recognized by the four NATO members that currently don’t acknowledge its independence- Spain, Greece, Slovakia, and Romania. 

But the West isn’t helpless in this scenario. There are actions they can take to ensure the entire region can gradually transition to a more pro-Western stance. First- the obvious- initiate investment in the Balkans. Russia, and even China, are outcompeting the West in certain areas of investment, especially modern infrastructure, where some parts of the Balkans still lack. A few things here- first, the West must hasten overall investment- it's unquestionably easier to gain access to capital from a bloc that’s literally your neighbor instead of reaching across an entire continent. The Balkans are only turning to China and Russia because of the hesitancy of the EU. That’s actually the second thing. Many countries in the Western Balkans are anxious to join the EU- but they’re being pushed away because of the outrageously slow process (think the DMV, but a dozen times worse). The EU does have valid concerns surrounding further enlargement into the Western Balkans, but adding them into their bloc, or at least speeding up the process, will surely help bring countries like Kosovo or Bosnia and Herzegovina further under the European security umbrella, undermining Russian influence in the region. 

The primary Western objective should be to prevent a repeat of history. After the fall of Yugoslavia, a power struggle over control of the Balkans took the lives of hundreds of thousands. But, disturbingly, the West is pushing the region in the same direction with their provocative actions, as it tries to win an impossible game of tug-of-war against Russia. The West and East are pulling on opposite sides of the same rope, and the more aggressively they do so, the higher the risk that it will violently rip apart. The only way to break this dangerous path is for the West to stop seeing the Balkans as a means to achieve its own objectives, and start seeing it as a region with its own perspective. The world needs to serve the Balkans, rather than using them to push around Russia by flying around fighter jets when they know that all that will do is tear the region apart. Yes, the Balkans are notoriously complicated. Yes, you should expect your extemp background on this to be at LEAST half your speech. But no, these conflicts don’t have to be unsolvable and never-ending. It’s time for the West to step it up- if not for the sake of global security, then for the sake of preventing even more heartache of lost families in the Balkans.