From the Presidency to Prison

February 10th, 2025

Ian Cheng

South Korean singer Rosé collaborated with pop star Bruno Mars on the hit song APT, a reference to a Korean drinking game. It looks like South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol got inspired from this and declared martial law, as a drunk person might have done.

On December 14th, 2024, Yoon was impeached, and a month later, was arrested and charged with insurrection, or rebelling against the government. However, the Constitutional Court still has to determine whether he will be completely removed from office.

Yoon comes from the right-wing People Power Party (PPP), and won his election in 2022 by less than 1% of the vote. Under his time in office, South Korea’s previously rocky relationship with Japan was improved, most notably with the signing of the Trilateral Economic Security Partnership with the United States. This deal emphasizes sharing intelligence and defense engagement to deter North Korean attacks.

However, Yoon is also no stranger to political difficulty. South Koreans were unhappy with his decision to approve a Japanese gold mine for UNESCO World Heritage status, a significant marker for tourism. Approval ratings after the president’s martial law ruling sunk to 11%, but recently, they have hovering at the 40% range. In comparison, the opposing left-wing Democratic Party of Korea’s (DPK) ratings are just about 45%.

Yoon and the PPP hold just 90 seats in the 300 member National Assembly, or the South Korean parliament. The DPK and its leader Lee Jae-Myung hold 161. As a result, the PPP has heavily relied on the presidential veto. For example, Yoon rejected a bill that would’ve opened an investigation on his wife for corruption. Critics have called this authoritarian.

Since then, South Korea has been in political turmoil. President Yoon’s first temporary replacement was Prime Minister Han Duck-Soo, and he’s also gotten kicked out. The current acting president is Finance Minister Choi Sang-Mok.

The main obstacle to a quick decision is that South Korea’s Constitutional Court only has six of nine judges. The PPP doesn’t believe that Choi doesn’t have authority to fill the vacancies because he wasn’t voted into office, and wants Yoon to appoint the judges that will decide his own fate. If given the right, Yoon will have selected a staggering six judges, adding on to the three he has already appointed. On the other hand, the DPK wants the National Assembly to vote the judges in, which would favor them thanks to their parliamentary majority. Six judges need to vote against Yoon to formally remove the president.

This also has massive international consequences. United States President Donald Trump will likely not coordinate with Choi. Trump’s talks with North Korean president Kim Jeong-Un could exclude South Korea. A peace treaty, which about 70% of South Koreans support, looks even more out of reach. North Korea’s position has strengthened and they are less likely to offer concessions, especially with nuclear weapons.

Yoon’s aggressive alliance building with NATO has made South Korea a staunch supporter of Ukraine. South Korean companies have become global leaders in producing ammunition, artillery, and military vehicles. Yoon has gotten much closer to the West and more aggressive toward North Korea and China than the DPK ever has. That may all now go away if he is formally removed from office.

Japan also has reason to be concerned. The DPK having the presidency could reverse the friendlier relationship between the two countries. This also has a risk of making ties with the United States even worse, because it has always been a goal to unite the two countries to deter Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

Overall, a continuation of the PPP presidency will mean more connections with the West, but runs the risk of an inefficient government. The DPK will likely change up the stances taken over Yoon’s term, but its reign will lead to a more efficient government. One thing’s clear, without proper democratic process and a path forward, South Korea will only suffer.