Ecuador Picks Noboa, Gonzalez Picks a Fight

April 21st, 2025

Dhruv Arun

Recently, President Daniel Noboa was re-elected in a second-round election run-off, with the National Electoral Council declaring late on Sunday that he had won by a wide margin. With 90% of the ballots counted, the results showed the 37-year-old president had 56% of the vote against Gonzalez's 44%.

Noboa said during a brief speech in his hometown of Olon that "this victory has been historic, a victory of more than 10 points, a victory of more than one million votes, where there is no doubt who the winner is," continuing that "Ecuadorians have spoken, [and] from tomorrow morning, we will go to work.”

But Noboa’s opponent, leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez, immediately rejected the results. She told chanting supporters she did not accept the outcome and would demand a recount, calling it "the worst and most grotesque electoral fraud in the history of Ecuador.” She continued that “in the name of the people we represent, we do not recognize the results presented by the National Electoral Council…I refuse to believe that a people would prefer lies instead of truth, violence instead of peace and unity.”

Despite Gonzalez's bold fraud claims, support for her recount call was dwindling, even from her own party. Noboa's support held at 55.6%, the level at which it remained for nearly the entire count, while Gonzalez had 44.4% support. Influential RC members have individually recognized Noboa's victory. For example, Aquiles Alvarez, the RC mayor of Ecuador's largest city, said, "If the people elected him, we must respect it. Whether we like it or not, the people voted democratically.”

The face-off between Noboa and Gonzalez had already been intense after February’s first round, where Noboa led by just 16,746 votes. Gonzalez was bidding to become Ecuador’s first woman president, and her defeat in the run-off has sparked one of the most divisive election outcomes in recent Ecuadorian history. While Noboa declared victory and prepared to govern, Gonzalez insisted on a recount, citing fraud but providing no evidence. Meanwhile, Noboa’s win was backed by key electoral bodies and international observers, who found no significant irregularities.

Noboa has used the election as a platform to push his “New Ecuador” vision focused on crime reduction and economic reform. He has pledged to continue military deployments, drug and weapons seizures, and increased investment in the oil sector. Gonzalez, by contrast, positioned herself as a populist alternative aligned with former President Rafael Correa, emphasizing social programs and justice reform.

The political tension escalated further when the government declared a state of “maximum alert” over an alleged assassination plot targeting Noboa. Authorities stated the threat came from “criminal organizations, in collusion with political groups defeated at the polls.” The government alleged that “bad losers” hired hitmen from Mexico and elsewhere to destabilize the state. The plot reportedly targeted “the life of the President of the Republic, state authorities, and public officials.”

As Gonzalez presses on with recount demands and Noboa prepares for a new term beginning May 24, Ecuador remains deeply polarized. For the Ecuadorian people, this election has become more than just a vote: it’s now a confrontation between two sharply different political visions for the nation’s future.

Extemp Analysis by Lindsey Zhao

Extemp Question: Will Gonzalez’s allegations of electoral fraud erode public trust in Ecuador’s democratic institutions?

The background is a little tricky here because it’s going to be pretty convoluted. Couple things you’ll need to clarify here to set up a good framework for the rest of your speech (backgrounds are underrated but really important in getting the judge to interpret the question the same way you do! There’s also no point to the rest of your speech when your judge is missing crucial context right from the start + is wondering about the context instead of your information.)

What are the allegations of electoral fraud + basics of the Ecuador election (Who are the key players)
Define public trust; how can we measure it/what does it mean?
Define democratic institutions

You could definitely argue either side for this question, but whichever side you pick, it would be interesting to draw from different examples from around the world + show how they relate to Ecuador if possible. Substructure for this would probably be something like:

Describing specific aspect of the fraud allegations + how they relate to a specific democratic institution (like the local balloting offices or the National Electoral Council)
Why will the public start to lose trust in that institution (or not)?