U.S-China Trade is Collapsing; Retailers Brace for It

April 28th, 2025

Anya Gordeev

Retailers and supply chain experts are warning that American consumers could face widespread product shortages and price hikes in the coming months due to President Donald Trump’s 145% tariff on almost all Chinese imports.

Major retailers including Walmart, Target, and Home Depot told the president in a private meeting this week that while prices have so far remained steady, that, in fact, won’t last. “Shelves will be empty," an administration official explained, heading the warning delivered by big box CEOs. The concern centers on shipments that were supposed to support the back to school and holiday seasons; products that are now sitting in China, as U.S. companies cancel or delay orders.

Additionally, freight traffic at the Port of Los Angeles is expected to drop 33% by early May. And the National Retail Federation predicts a 20% plunge in total imports during the second half of 2025 if current tariff levels remain. Items most at risk include low cost goods like toys, footwear, clothing, and pet products. These are all categories that are heavily dependent on Chinese manufacturing. Small businesses are already feeling the pressure. Jessica Berger, CEO of pet brand Bundle x Joy, said she was unable to stop her latest shipment and is now facing a $180,000 tariff bill. “Six months ago, this could have put me out of business,” she said. Experts continue to warn that even a quick rollback of tariffs wouldn’t undo the current supply chain freeze. “We’re going to start running out of stuff,” said Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council. "It's going to be a train wreck."

Trump, facing growing public disapproval of his economic strategy, began softening his stance. He told reporters he wanted a “fair deal” with China and that tariffs would “come down substantially,” though Chinese officials have denied any formal trade negotiations.

These tariffs are already hurting the U.S. economy. Supply chains are being strained, small businesses are at risk, and consumer prices are growing higher and higher. With critical retail seasons approaching, the uncertainty is forcing companies to delay orders. If the tariffs persist, consumers will see a Covid 19-like shortage - except this time, it will not be one caused by a pandemic but one caused by policy.

Extemp Analysis by Finian Knepper

Example Question: How can retailers best mitigate the effects of the US-China trade war?

AGD’s: For your hook, I reckon it’d be better to have a dramatic AGD. Humour is possible - and can work, but with the impacts the tariffs are having it could end up being in poor taste.

BG: Trump's tariffs and the trade war are very hard to follow, and constantly changing. I wouldn’t waste any prep or speech time going over their entire history, and just get your judge up to speed on what’s happening now - and more importantly for this question: how it's having an impact. Letting your judge know not just what’s happening, but the impact it’s having, is crucial, especially when your question is using words like “effects” or “impacts” (as we see with this question.)

SOS: Now’s your time to hit the feels - if you used humor in the intro - take this time to ensure your judge knows the impact of what's happening here. It’s not horrific - but make sure the judge knows it matters. You could definitely talk about the general direction of the Nation, but real, human stats would be more relevant - and have more of an impact.

Main points: Of course for this question you’ll be using prescriptive substructure. I recommend problem-solution-impact; diving into 3 of the smaller impacts that are hitting retailers - like shortages, increased costs, and investor fright. Answering these sub-problems will let you get a coherent and clear answer to the problem at hand.