Kashmir and the India-Pakistan Conflict

April 28th, 2025

Ian Cheng

On April 22nd, a group of militants killed at least 26 Indians in Kashmir, marking the worst attack in the region in several years. Many people have blamed Pakistan for the disaster, however, the reality is much more complex.

Kashmir is a territory in between India and Pakistan. In this chunk of land, Pakistan administers the north and India governs the south. This split was agreed upon back in 1972, but both countries claim the entire thing. The two South Asian powers were always enemies, due to India being majority Hindu, and Pakistan being Islamic. Since Pakistan won its independence in 1947, they have fought four separate wars.

A group called the Kashmir Resistance claimed responsibility for the attack. It is constituted by a group of people who left the Pakistani Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT,) which is classified as a terrorist group by the United States. Pakistan has denied funding these anti-India organizations. It says that only moral and diplomatic support is provided.

The Indian portion (called Jammu and Kashmir) of the region is estimated to reach a GDP of $3.1 billion this year, an 11% increase from 2024. Tourism is a massive industry, with nearly 24 million visitors last year. According to India’s Economic Survey Report, forests cover 48% of the total land area, supporting agriculture and energy production. Strategic importance and the fact that Kashmir is majority Muslim are two likely reasons why Pakistan wants Kashmir.

In response, India has taken many steps to harm Pakistan elsewhere. Power over the Indus River Basin and its several other tributaries, or rivers that flow into a bigger body of water, is a big deal. The agreement in place was the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT.) Under its terms, India must allow the downstream flow of three western rivers: the Indus, the Jhelum, and the Chenab. This allows Pakistan to get enough water.

India has now suspended the IWT, meaning that Pakistan could face severe water shortages. This is crucial because Islamabad relies on it for 80% of its agriculture and a third of its hydropower. Since India’s rivers are upstream, New Delhi could hypothetically cut off water from Pakistan by collecting it, diverting river flow, or embarking on massive dam projects that hold back more water. On the other hand, India currently lacks the infrastructure to deal with such big quantities of water.

Controversy is also set to spark. Part of the IWT was that India must share hydrological data, and that is pretty much gone. Without knowledge of things like the timing of the rains, several Pakistani crop harvests will be hurt at the hands of upcoming monsoon rains. Pakistan is also in a rough spot. Water shortfalls of 35% are already in play thanks to droughts, and the prospect of having less water is terrifying enough.

The dispute isn’t all about nature, but diplomatic too. India has closed its mainland border with Pakistan completely, limiting trade. Pakistan relies on India for 30-40% of its active pharmaceutical ingredients, which are key for producing medications for diseases such as diabetes and neurological disorders. But, a huge majority of Indian goods reach Pakistan from third countries like the UAE. This bypasses trade restrictions.

China controls a tiny eastern part of Kashmir, and also plays a role in the conflict. The Asian superpower is allies with Pakistan and is planning to build the world’s largest dam on the Yarlung Zangbo River, worth $137 billion. Although this is separate from the bodies of water that India and Pakistan are fighting over, the new dam could harm India in the same way that India plans to hurt Pakistan. India has received verbal support from Donald Trump, but nothing is concrete yet. This marks another power struggle between the United States and China.

Although this is not the first time blows have been exchanged, a full-blown war can break out. The conflict over Kashmir has effects all across the board, from the environment to geopolitics. India has been accused of human rights abuses in the region. Both South Asian countries have nuclear weapons, which can only exacerbate worries. The situation in South Asia is of the utmost importance and unfortunately, more conflict is set to come.

Extemp Analysis by Boyana Nikolova

Predictive questions are always tricky, but there is an approach I would take with this one to argue either yes or no. I feel that both sides can be supported well, so choose whichever resonates more and/or you could do more impacting with.

First, I’d make sure to use an expectation/verification substructure, regardless of which answer you choose. For the verification point, you NEED to bring in or connect the developments in Kashmir. For example, if you’re typing to prove that war will break out, this could be how you structure one of your points.

Weapons use

a. To have peace, India and Pakistan need to be reassured that the other will not use or threaten the use of weapons. This is what keeps tensions low and limits the chance of war.

b. As of now, there is no such reassurance. Example of Kashmir: leaders are threatening to use bombs, shells, strikes after an incident. This doesn’t just keep both sides uneasy, it encourages retaliation, as well.

i. Could lead to regional war, which would put millions of lives in danger

Now, make sure you’re hammering down those impacts. This question is about the possibility of war, so make it clear that there is a lot at stake. Your SOS is another chance to add that emotion and urgency to the speech.

For your AGD, I’d recommend a personal narrative or interesting fact about the history of the region. That way you can smoothly link it into a background. A good background is crucial for a question like this, so make sure you explain the why, how, and what of the dispute. Then, move on into recent threats between the two countries, so you can contextualize the possibility of war. Lastly, it is vitally important that you're actually answering the question. Make sure that your first subpoints (the expectations) are well-supported and reasonable. That way, the judge should have no qualms about you rejecting or verifying each expectation in your second subpoints.

Good luck! Happy practicing.