Uncertainty Hits An All Time High. Are we Sure?

The word “tariff” has been thrown around so much since its use by the U.S. President Donald Trump. As soon as Trump began starting trade wars with Canada, Europe, China for the thrill of it - It felt like the world was rebounding in response. Now that Trump had duly relaxed some of these economic hindrances, the world is still almost in a state of economic “attack” ready to respond to any monetary missiles again, all at a perplexing time. 

In their 2025 Spring Meeting Agenda, the IMF published that now, economic uncertainty is now higher than it ever was during the COVID-19 pandemic citing reasons such as lack of alternative products, supply chain hesitancies, and the endless nature of tariffs.The global economy is facing unprecedented uncertainty as escalating trade tensions, financial market volatility, and shifting policy priorities threaten to derail growth prospects. Multiple reports from leading institutions—including the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD,) the International Monetary Fund (IMF,) and the World Economic Forum—warn of a sharp slowdown in 2025, with recession risks intensifying.

The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has surged to its highest level this century, reflecting growing concerns over trade wars, geopolitical instability, and shifting fiscal priorities. The IMF warns that "ratcheting up a trade war, along with elevated policy uncertainty, could further reduce near- and long-term growth." That’s not all though.

Low income economics are exceptionally vulnerable as they face a storm of numerous economic issues out of their control. In countries like Congo and Ghana, mounting debt levels, shrinking finance capital, and flight to high income economics are now their new realities where a new term has already been coined: debt distress, as over half of low income nations are already at a high risk of exacerbation of debt or face it in the near future.

Currently, the global economy stands at an impasse between economic sanctity and instability. Policymakers across the world will soon enter back in sessions of legislature to likely deliberate rampant economic issues, in aiming for an economically healthy world, all we can do is hope they are certain about it.

Extemp Analysis by Ruhaan Sood

What can the U.S. do to immediately relax economic tensions across the world?

AGD: I’d frame the introduction on whether this question would be inserted into a U.S. Foreign Policy round or International Economies round, it’s important to understand the context of both since you either want to frame the argument on the U.S. dynamic or world dynamic - both are essential nonetheless. In the case of a domestic round, I’d highlight a unique statistic from the L.A. Times explaining how Chinese frugality is at an all time high ($1.80 dinners) and then later drawing a parallel between Trump’s lavish spending or something similar.

SOS:  I believe that in a question such as above with a stark timeframe, it’s important to emphasize the urgency and overall haste of the situation - find a statistic that somehow references this is how much economic ruin is caused worldwide every minute, hour, day or something similar.

Main Points: In an international economy context, there’s a lot to be said here but here's is an example of the route you could potentially go down (problem-solution substructure)

1. Reducing Tariffs

a. Economic Problem

b. Solution (how that relaxes tensions)

c. Impact

2. Implementing Trade Reform

3. Restarting Foreign Aid Projects

Happy extemping!

Read More Here:

• Katherine Hamilton, The Wall Street Journal

• Dan Grossman, Scripps 

• Andrea Shalal, Reuters

• Landry Signe, Brookings

• Patrick Healy, The New York Times