Germany Elects a Chancellor
May 12th, 2025
Sophia Amundgaard
May 12th, 2025
Sophia Amundgaard
Earlier this week, Friedrich Merz made history when he became the first elected chancellor in post-war Germany to lose on the first ballot, falling short of 6 votes in Bundestag. Regardless, Merz received 325 votes in the second round of blind submission, securing his victory with a 9 point leeway.
Earlier this year, Merz’s party, The Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU), procured their win with 28.6% of the vote in Germany’s largest voter turnout since 1990. Yet, as opposition leader Bernd Baumann Of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) noted, a loss like this means “Merz is damaged, whatever else happens in future.”
Regional Impact
Baumann isn’t wrong. As the most populous of the 27-nation European Union (EU), Germany holds significant weight in an ever unstable continent. Despite its GDP contracting by 0.2% in its fourth quarter, Germany defends its position as the EU’s largest economy.
More critically, Merz ran on a notably conservative campaign, mirroring the desires of the German people of which 49.3% voted for a far right party. Yet, he also quickly became the face of euro-centricism, claiming “[his] absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, [they] can really achieve independence from the USA,” going as far as to suggest disbanding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) if the Trump Administration continued negotiations with the Russian Federation.
The implications of this policy are not objectively negative. In fact, EU member states have long boasted what is known as a service economy, wherein 70% of european GDP and employment is sourced from the sector. Resultantly, Merz’s argument that the regions’ average 1.9% of GDP defense spending both falls short of NATO requirements and leaves the EU vulnerable in the event of US withdrawal does hold merit.
However, Merz’s eccentric plan to ease EU fiscal rules—currently forcing the maintenance of a debt-to-GDP ratio below 60% and a public deficit below 3% of economic output—is only viable if he maintains a majority among the German people and parliament. His election results send a message to the German population and the broader region that he doesn’t.
Resultantly, Merz has already been forced to soften his foreign policy initiatives. In a May 9th press conference with NATO secretary general Mark Rutte, Merz refined his former claims, asserting that “the attitude of the American government has evidently changed,” and that “America is indispensable for Europe’s security—today and for a long time to come.” In the following days, Merz met with both Germany and Poland in an attempt to further this new narrative.
Regardless, as Union Bloc head Jens Spahn elucidates, “the whole of Europe, perhaps even the whole world, [was] watching this second round of elections.” Now, it’s going to be more critical than ever that Merz re-establishes trust across the board—both in the interests of his political agenda and regional stability.
Party Implications
Of even more immediate concern is the prominence of disunity within Merz’s party. Early in its career, the CSU/CDU and SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany) coalition faced considerable internal instability regarding cabinet elections despite its passing holding an 84% majority. Nevertheless, party officials assured the public that Merz would “swiftly secure a majority.” But, in a blow to his credibility, Merz received only 310 out of 630 votes in the first ballot, falling significantly short of the 328 seats held by his coalition even in the second round.
The blind nature of the 2025 German elections means it may never be known who betrayed Merz. Yet, as Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro at ING Research asserted on May 6th, “it looks as though some MPs from the CDU/CSU wanted to show their clear dissatisfaction with Merz's U-turn on fiscal policy following the elections.”
Fortunately for Merz, the absence of a viable alternative to the election posed serious risks for SPD—which would have borne the brunt of public backlash had coalition negotiations collapsed—serving as an incentive to tidy the vote in the second ballot. Still, it will be crucial Merz works to reunify his own party and boost confidence among the nation’s population. Especially considering that just 21% of Germans consider Merz trustworthy, a score 9% lower than in August and 3% down from January alone. Freiderich Merz may have won the title of German Chancellor, but it’s going to be an uphill battle in his fight for political victory.
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