Prisoners Traded but Peace Left Behind

May 12th, 2025

Dhruv Arun

Russia and Ukraine held their first direct peace talks since the early weeks of Moscow’s 2022 invasion, meeting in Istanbul on May 16, 2025, but the session ended after less than two hours without a ceasefire agreement. Despite the short duration, the two sides managed to agree on one tangible outcome that both countries said they had agreed to trade 1,000 prisoners of war in what would be the biggest such exchange yet. Vladimir Medinsky, the Kremlin aide leading the Russian delegation. “We agreed that each side would present its vision of a possible future cease-fire and would spell it out in detail.” Ukraine’s defense minister, Rustem Umerov, who led Kyiv’s delegation, confirmed that the teams discussed the prisoner exchange, a cease-fire, and the possibility of organizing a meeting of the two leaders. However, hopes for a broader diplomatic breakthrough quickly dimmed. A Ukrainian source told Reuters that Moscow’s demands were “detached from reality” and exceeded anything previously discussed. Among these were ultimatums for Ukraine to withdraw from parts of its own territory, as well as other “non-starters and non-constructive conditions.” Zelensky said that “Pressure must continue to rise until real progress is made”. Speaking from a summit in Albania, Zelensky accused Putin of being “afraid” to meet him in person and turning the Istanbul talks into a “staged, empty process.” On Thursday, Putin spurned Zelenskyy’s offer to meet face-to-face in Turkey. Mr. Putin, however, has aimed at Mr. Zelensky’s legitimacy for months and would most likely be loath to meet the Ukrainian leader.

Still, Medinsky said his team would take back Ukraine’s request for direct negotiations between Putin and Zelensky. He furthered that “After such a vision has been presented, we believe it would be appropriate, as also agreed, to continue our negotiations.” After the meeting, Zelensky and leaders from France, Germany, Poland, and the U.K. held a phone call with Trump to discuss the outcome. Additionally, Zelenskyy told the media that “Pressure on Russia must be maintained until Russia is ready to end the war.” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called Russia’s position “clearly unacceptable” and said European and American leaders were “closely aligning” their responses. Trump, who has pressed for an end to the conflict, said a meeting between himself and Putin would happen “as soon as we can set it up.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov agreed, calling it “abundantly clear” that a breakthrough wouldn’t occur until a meeting between the U.S. and Russian leaders took place. Dmitry Peskov also said that “contact between Putin and Trump is significant in the context of a Ukrainian settlement. Naturally, we agree with that position.”

Despite those signals, the negotiations remain stalled. Russian officials made what American negotiators considered unrealistic demands, including for territory still under Ukraine’s control in four regions that Moscow claims to have annexed. Russia says it sees the talks as a continuation of the failed 2022 negotiations. But Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said Russian attempts to align the new talks with those earlier ones would fail. Despite supporting the talks initially, Trump undercut them in comments on Thursday by saying no progress would come until he personally met with Putin. Marco Rubio also said “I don’t think anything productive is actually going to happen from this point forward until they engage in a very frank and direct conversation.”

Meanwhile, the Vatican has offered to mediate future discussions. This is because Pope Leo XIV said, “The Holy See is always ready to help bring enemies together, face to face, to talk to one another.” Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin confirmed the church was offering the Vatican as a meeting site. On the battlefield, the war continues with devastating consequences. Russia’s invasion has killed more than 12,000 Ukrainian civilians, Tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have died, and likely a larger number of Russian troops. A Ukrainian soldier using the call sign “corsair” said “I don’t think they will agree on anything concrete, because summer is the best time for war,” showing the true ramifications of this war.

Extemp question: Will gestures like prisoner swaps and diplomatic talks be enough to sustain international pressure for real peace between Russia and Ukraine?