Kashmir Burns as Rivals Brace for War

May 5th, 2025

Dhruv Arun

Kashmir has experienced its share of violence over the past 70 years, but last week's massacre in the "idyllic" Baisaran valley marked a "grim" new low for the Indian-administered territory. As families and honeymooners relaxed in Pahalgam, gunmen from a militant group called The Resistance Front slaughtered 26 people in a meadow, all but one of whom was Indian. The fallout from the attack has pushed relations between India and Pakistan to a dangerous low.

The two nuclear-armed nations are now “cratering,” edging closer to outright war. India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, accused Pakistan of organizing the assault and vowed to pursue the perpetrators “to the ends of the Earth.” In a swift response, New Delhi downgraded diplomatic ties with Islamabad and closed a key border crossing. It also suspended the long-standing Indus Waters Treaty, which governs water sharing between the two countries, a move Pakistan called an “act of war.” Tensions continued to escalate as both sides engaged in retaliatory measures. India and Pakistan exchanged cross-border fire, expelled diplomats, shut down trade routes, and conducted military drills. Modi’s decision to pull out of the 1960 water-sharing treaty provoked outrage in Islamabad, which accused India of “water terrorism” and appealed to the Hague.

Indian media outlets blamed Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies for orchestrating the killings. Aaj Ki Baat said that “Pakistan may deny it a hundred times, but the entire world knows it was behind the attack.” Videos from the scene showed gunmen armed with sophisticated weapons and bodycams, reinforcing suspicions that this was “a planned, professional job,” likely directed by the Pakistani army and the ISI.

Critics of India’s past restraint recalled the 2008 Mumbai attacks, saying that such inaction “looks more and more like a terrible miscalculation,” and that “It’s time India showed Pakistan that terrorism has a price, even if that means war.” But not all voices point toward Islamabad. Pakistani outlets argue that the Modi government should look inward. According to Dawn, India’s nationalist leadership must “review its brutal rule” in Kashmir and recognize the “immense discontent” in the “occupied” territory. In 2019, Modi revoked Kashmir’s already limited autonomy, placing it under direct rule from New Delhi. Critics warn that continued suppression “through brute force and intimidation” will only fuel further bloodshed.

The Indus Waters Treaty has become a flashpoint in the crisis. Modi's long-term aim, said The Nation, is to choke off Pakistan’s water supply. The treaty supports 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture, and its disruption could lead to “catastrophic” consequences “for the entire region.” However, others argue the move is largely symbolic. Abhishek De said “It’s more of a psychological tactic,” since actually cutting water flow would take years of infrastructure development.

In an effort to defuse the situation, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met with Gulf envoys from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE. Sharif reiterated Pakistan’s denial of involvement and offered to join a neutral, international investigation into the attack. His office also reported receiving calls from U.S. and other foreign diplomats encouraging restraint. Meanwhile, life on the border has been thrown into turmoil. Residents in front-line villages like Sainth have begun evacuating families, fearing renewed conflict. A village headman said that “Most villagers here don't invest beyond a very basic house. For who knows when a misdirected shell may fall from the other side and ruin everything?” Another resident recalled the 1999 Kargil conflict, saying, “At times, we feel that war must break out now because, for us, it is already an everyday reality.” While the international community urges calm, both India and Pakistan continue to take steps that suggest further escalation. Cooler heads may still prevail, but for now, the region remains on the edge of conflict.