Nationwide Floods Are Becoming More Common—And Texas Is Just the Beginning

July 14th, 2025
Ayat Nayyer

Unprecedented, torrential rains ravaged central Texas on the morning of July 4. As dense precipitation poured, the Guadalupe River overflowed, reaching heights of up to 30 feet while inundating the houses, camps and people along its course. The death toll reached 128 with at least 160 people missing as of July 11.

Yet, these events are not limited to Texas. In North Carolina, heavy rainfall saturated the soil, sweeping highways and buildings. The risk of flooding continues to amplify as further downpour is expected. In New Mexico, rising waters killed three people in the remote village of Ruidoso in what has been described as “one of the worst monsoon seasons.” Forecasts now extend this threat to 19 million people nationwide, including areas from northern Missouri all the way to western Michigan.

With extreme weather events happening more frequently and severely, many have pointed to potential causes. In Texas, local officials criticized the National Weather Service (NWS) for its inadequate forecasts, which Democrat lawmakers attributed to staffing vacancies caused by President Donald Trump’s prior cuts. However, meteorologists explain that the staffing shortages “did not hinder the Texas weather office’s ability to predict the storm,” adding that the forecasts were “good, perhaps unusually good” given the available information. Indeed, the NWS issued warnings at least one hour in advance for affected areas—some even earlier—but this was not sufficient against the rapidly-escalating rainfall.

It’s no wonder that Central Texas is called “Flash Flood Alley,” a name given to the region because of its unusually high susceptibility to floods. As warm air from the Gulf of Mexico rises over cliffs, it cools and condenses into heavy rain. Because the landscape’s semi-arid soils absorb little water, rain naturally flows downstream into creeks—and eventually, larger rivers such as the Guadalupe.

But the impacts seem harsher than anticipated, and scientists warn that climate change could have compounded the flooding. As global temperatures continue to rise, atmospheric moisture levels increase. This, coupled with increased evaporation from bodies of water and soil, results in the formation of large, buoyant clouds that pour heavy rain. Yet, climate change hasn’t just exacerbated floods; nationwide, heatwaves, wildfires and hurricanes are becoming increasingly persistent and acute. It is estimated that more than a third of the $230 billion of damage caused by inland flooding in the United States between 1988 and 2021 “would not have happened without climate change.” Even so, experts emphasize that while warmer temperatures could have contributed to the Texas floods, the true catastrophe came from a lack of preparation and resources within rural areas.

Despite increasing risks, many communities across the nation remain ill-prepared for natural disasters. This is partially due to local governments relying on obsolete records from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), which fail to reflect the intensity of shifting rain patterns. Kerr County, Texas—which was hit the hardest by the floods—lacked the “last mile of communication”, a flood warning system. A necessary flood warning system project was sadly abandoned back in 2017 due to cost barriers, which environmental engineer Avantika Gori says, “isn’t unusual for a rural place with small government and little access to capital.” Furthermore, state and federal politicians refused to assist with these proposals. The Texas Division of Emergency Management twice declined the county’s request for $1 million to upgrade its flood infrastructure, and the Texas Senate nixed a bill this spring that would have funded warning systems across the state.

As local governments struggle with unfulfilled requests, the federal government faces mounting pressure to adapt to a crisis they were not equipped for. On July 11, President Trump surveyed the damage in Kerrville and, in conjunction with Governor Greg Abbott, imposed a “major disaster declaration” for Central Texas counties. This would allow qualifying Texans to file for assistance in dealing with flood damages. In addition, the government appeared to soften its prior “phasing out” on the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA); however, some Democratic lawmakers still remain skeptical of concrete action.

Whether these responses indicate a turning point or another lapse remains to be seen, but it's clear that the recent floods were, to an extent, caused by a combination of climatic, governmental and resource gaps. Given that 41 million people across the United States live in a flood prone area—including 20% of Texans—it becomes all the more imperative that appropriate measures are taken to prevent these kinds of calamities. Although lives cannot be replenished, we should hope that government officials learn lessons from the recent disasters in Texas, North Carolina and New Mexico to do all in their power to mitigate future devastations.

Extemp Analysis by: Ty Tan

This question is very far reaching and is an evergreen, but you have to be sure to use the Texas floods continually as the causal for deciding what the implications are.

Question: What implications do the Texas floods hold for the future of US disaster management policy?

Background:

I would be careful in framing the background. Time and time again, US natural disasters have proven to not get Congress or the US to change anything. To be hopeful, I would frame it in a way as that suggests that it may get Congress to reconsider disaster management policy in 3 areas.

For your background however, you should cover:

What is the state of US disaster management policy
Why it failed the Texas floods
How that could get a reconsideration from the government (conflict sentence)

Be concise here to open the door to more time for the points - most people know whats happening in the floods to some degree.

Answer: Prompt a US reconsideration of US Disaster management policy, in 3 areas (see here how it emphasizes a reconsideration, not immediate policy action. That is unrealistic and won’t be an actual implication - history proves this)

Emphasizing insufficient state emergency response capacity
Highlighting Bureaucratic Obstacles to federal response
Creating a need for pre-empitive infrastructure development

Analysis + Concluding Thoughts

In general, the points here are specific but I think thats the best way of doing this semi-prescriptive question. For each, emphasize that these are areas of improvement that Congress can see after the devastating effects and events surrounding the Texas floods. Emphasize how that although they might not spur action, they certainly are catching the eye of Congress and States (maybe even use quotes and statements from various Senators and Congress people to really beef up the B).

Happy extemping! I hope you like this question - courtesy of Andrew Zheng.