The End of a Thai Political Dynasty

July 7th, 2025
Daniel Song

Bolstered by the popular HBO series ‘The White Lotus,’ Thailand has long been a popular travel destination for tourists to go and relax. However, life has now become stressful for recently suspended Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. On July 1st, Thailand’s Constitutional Court suspended Paetongtarn, citing a violation of the nation’s ethics standards in a phone call she had with Hun Sen, the powerful, shadow leader of Cambodia. The call was about a Thai-Cambodian border dispute that caused a military clash in May 2025, in which a Cambodian soldier was killed. Hun Sen leaked a recording of the call, in which Paetongtarn appeared deferential to Hun Sen and instead criticized the Thai army commander responsible for the area of the dispute. The call sparked intense backlash in Thailand. Despite Paetongtarn’s apology following the release, thousands of nationalist and anti-government protestors still took to the streets demanding her resignation as Prime Minister. Paetongtarn has managed to remain in government despite her suspension from office by becoming the culture minister in the new cabinet.

However, Paetongtarn’s long-term political survival is also in jeopardy. In part due to the aforementioned phone call, Paetongtarn’s approval rating, as well as the electoral prospects of her Pheu Thai party, have been cratering. A poll on June 28th by the National Institute of Development Administration found Paetongtarn’s approval rating had cratered to just 9.20% and Pheu Thai’s electoral support also dropped to 11.52%. While elections are not due until June 2027, Paetongtarn’s unpopularity and lack of political capital could doom her government before then. For example, Bhumjaithai—a conservative populist pro-monarchy party—quit Paetongtarn’s coalition government, leaving it with a slim majority of roughly 255 seats out of 500. If any more parties decide to leave the coalition, the government could quickly collapse. Even if that does not happen, the government has already been significantly weakened. Napon Jatusripitak, acting coordinator of the Thailand Studies Program at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, explains that, “Political pressure will mount on coalition partners to distance themselves from what appears to be a sinking ship.” Ultimately, this means the government will struggle to pass critical legislation, including the national budget for the new fiscal year in October.

Beyond the immediate political ramifications, Paetongtarn’s political weakness could lead to the end of her family’s powerful political dynasty, the Shinawatras. The Shinawatras, led by Paetongtarn’s father Thaksin—himself a former prime minister and billionaire businessman—have dominated Thai politics in the 21st century. Yet, their influence and popularity are now waning due to a combination of factors, namely, Paetongtarn’s failures to address Thailand’s economy, Thaksin’s legal issues and targeting by the monarchy and the rise of the progressive People's Party (formerly Move Forward) eroding the Shinawatras' support base.

Paetongtarn herself has proven to be an inept political leader and economic manager, failing to boost Thailand’s sluggish economy amid popular discontent. The four pillars of the Thai economy—investment, consumption, exports and tourism—have all stalled, causing Thailand’s economy to be one of the worst-performing in the ASEAN bloc, with GDP growth projected to be a meager 1.8% in 2025.

There is also a cloud of legal trouble surrounding Thaksin Shinawatra himself. He recently went to court to face lese majeste charges. Thailand’s lese majeste laws make it an offense to “defame, insult or threaten members of the royal family,” carrying a maximum penalty of fifteen years in prison. Due to its broad nature, it has been weaponized to target pro-democracy activists and opposition politicians. Thaksin avoided lese majeste punishment after the 2023 Thai election by having his Pheu Thai party form a coalition with pro-military, pro-monarchy conservative parties, which kept the progressive Move Forward party out of power.

Unfortunately for Thaksin and the Shinawatras, by previously saving himself from prosecution, he may have dealt a fatal blow to Pheu Thai. In the past, Thaksin and Pheu Thai managed to remain popular and win elections on a populist platform of reform. For example, in 2002, his government established a universal healthcare program, which offered free health care to the poor and care to others at a nominal fee. One study found that between 2000 and 2002 alone, there was a significant decrease in infant mortality. However, many younger and urban Thai voters who support progressive policies do not remember these policies. Thus, they support the Move Forward party instead of Pheu Thai. Young voters are also angered by what they see as a betrayal by Pheu Thai through their support of a pro-monarchy coalition government. In fact, Move Forward won the most seats in the 2023 election. Even after being banned and rebranding as the People’s Party, the party is surging in recent polls, with over 46% of voters backing it, far more than any other party.

In short, faced with legal troubles and political unpopularity, Paetongtarn Shinawatra and her family’s political dynasty are more vulnerable than ever.

Extemp Analysis by: Ty Tan

I really like Thai politics, so this article was great and the analysis is even more interesting.

Question: Will Paetongtarn Shinawatra and her Pheu Thai party manage to stay in power by the end of 2025?

AGD: There’s a lot of oppression narratives you can use here under Pheu Thai’s rule of Thailand. You could also do a topical joke about corruption or incumbents that could flow nicely.
Background:

Since Thai politics is a lesser known topic, you need to do a lot of groundwork. First, establish the facts:

Who are the major parties (Pheu Thai, Move Forward)
Who are the players (Paetongtarn, Opposition)

Next, you need to setup the situation of staying in power:

Losing their coalition
Risk of 2027 elections and complete party loss

The factors here are pretty simple, you just need to explain a lot more than a DX topic.

Answer: No

Paetongtarn’s Legal Jeopardy
Declining Popular Support / Pheu Thai Identity Crisis
Likely Coalition Collapse (Lack of Trust)

Analysis + Concluding Thoughts

I think you should keep this speech simple to make sure the foreign topic doesn’t fly over your judge’s head. The second point can be tough to explain, but a party’s identity of populism fading away is bad. The last point should be emphasized the most as it most deeply ties into losing power, as if they lose their coalition they lose total power in government itself. Staying in power not only requires leaders to be present and the party to be supported, but for their party to keep their coalition alive, something that seems unlikely.