Mamdani vs. Cuomo: NYC’s Democratic Mayoral Crossroads

June 16th, 2025

Patrick Li

In a race once dismissed as predictable and a long shot for political outsiders, New York City’s Primary for the Democratic mayoral candidate has morphed into a defining clash between establishment caution and progressive insurgency. On June 14th, early voting opened, and voters were faced with two sharply diverging paths: the bold, bottom-up campaign of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, and the low-profile but well-funded comeback bid of former governor Andrew Cuomo. With rising tension, record outside spending, and a generational divide at the heart of the electorate, the race has become a referendum not just on the city’s future—but on the soul of the New York Democratic Party. Let me explain.

To many of New York’s working class and youth, Mamdani’s campaign has struck a chord. He’s running not as a polished politician, but more so as a progressive movement-builder—someone who speaks directly to the housing crisis, bloated NYPD budgets, and rising inequality. Endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and State Comptroller Brad Lander, Mamdani has drawn crowds with his call for “transformational—not transactional—leadership.” In the June 12 debate, he declared, “We don’t need another manager. We need a mandate to build a city that works for all of us.” His appeal is deeply rooted in progressive ideals: among his policy proposals include rent rollbacks, an expansion of public housing, a bid to form a public bank to fund social programs, and a net expansion of corporate and ‘Millionaire’ tax hikes set to increase annual revenue by 10 billion. Yet, despite concerns over budget constraints, in a city where over 70,000 remain homeless and affordability continues to decline year after year, Mamdani’s policy platform resonates—especially in outer boroughs and among younger voters of color.

Meanwhile, Cuomo’s return to public life has been cautious to say the least. Three years after resigning from governor amid sexual harassment allegations, he is banking on his executive record to win over skeptical moderates. At debates and in television ads, he’s framed the race as a choice between “realism and rhetoric,” warning that Mamdani’s proposals “sound good but will collapse” under the weight of fiscal burden; there is some truth to this—estimates show that a newly elected Mamdani administration’s social safety net expansions would cost around an additional 10 billion more per year for New Yorkers. Yet, the former governor’s rise has been modest, not meteoric. A Public Policy Polling survey released this week shows Mamdani ahead by four points—35% to Cuomo’s 31%—while a Data for Progress ranked-choice model gives Cuomo a slim 51-49 edge once second-choice votes are tallied. In a race this close, turnout and voter rankings could flip the script entirely.

Regardless of the disputes over polls and proposed policy, one thing is clear: Cuomo’s campaign is powered by deep-pocketed allies. Super PACs have aligned with him, most notably the Bloomberg-funded Fix the City, pouring over $14 million into attack ads. One widely condemned mailer darkened Mamdani’s image and falsely implied that he supported abolishing the police. Mamdani’s team fired back, accusing the Cuomo camp of “race-baiting and Islamophobia.” As he told supporters last week: “They aren’t afraid of me. They’re afraid of what we represent.”

That fear might not be entirely invalid. Recently, Mamdani and Brad Lander—another progressive candidate—have endorsed each other and have encouraged supporters to rank each other second—a move that further consolidates support under the city’s ranked-choice voting system. In contrast to this bloc, Cuomo appears more reliant on first-choice votes from older Democrats, particularly in Manhattan and parts of southeast Queens and the Bronx. Whether this base can fully withstand a coordinated progressive surge remains to be seen.

This election is about more than personalities—it’s about whether everyday New Yorkers believe whether or not the city should be reimagined with new-age progressivism—or simply restabilized. Cuomo is offering familiarity and control. Mamdani is offering vision and risk. One promises a return to managerial governance; the other, a radical rewrite of it. If Mamdani wins, he will become the city’s first Muslim mayor—and its most left-leaning in modern history. If Cuomo prevails, it will speak more to the resilience of the political old guard than to any popular groundswell. Either way, New York isn’t just picking a mayor. It’s picking a path forward.