Turkey's Rise in Crackdowns

June 2nd, 2025

Arnav Goyal

On May 31, 2025, Turkey directed a jailing of numerous opposition party members, and other people, on the guise of terroristic ambitions and corruption. However, this is not the first time in mere months that the country have done so, and it represents a broader strengthening of President Erdogan’s rule in Turkey, all while the country faces the toll of the 2023 earthquakes, and severe economic turmoil due to poor leadership of the country.

For context, after the 2023 election in which Erdogan was re-elected in a shock victory, his economic policies only left a bad taste in voters’ minds, and it led to a furthering of questionable policies on interest rates, therefore leading to less investment in the country, and a severe cost of living crisis that has led to Erdogan’s unpopularity. This has in turn led to Erdogan trying to convince the public that these changes are good, though even when most aren’t buying it, he has still pushed through.

This has led to the opposition parties gaining ground heavily in the polls. In the 2024 local elections, the opposition CHP Party soared to victory, amidst rising discontent with such economic policy. In the polls for the next federal election in 2028, Erdogan’s AK Party was losing badly by double digits to the CHP, and the popular leader, Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul, was only gaining ground.

Polling for the 2028 Election

This angered Erdogan, and he took combative measures to suppress the opposition, and secure more support for himself. One can say it backfired miserably. The first wave of opposition crackdowns led to the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, the presidential candidate for the CHP, and the man who was widely expected to win the polls. Many other opposition figures were arrested soon later, like mayors and councilmen on charges, like bribery and corruption, that most claim have no evidence. This has led to a major breakthrough in Turkish politics that has led to major outrage across the board.

Tens of millions took to the streets in places like Istanbul, Ankara, and İzmir, to protest the arrest
The Turkish Lira fell nearly 17% after investor uncertainty about investing in the country, throttling the economy
Platforms like Twitter/X, Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube were cracked down upon and suppressed in an effort to stop speech

This is not all of it, however, one thing is abundantly clear: Erdogan wishes to stop the flow of opposition material, as his stagnation in the polls reflects badly on his self-image. With these recent crackdowns we’ve seen, more and more people are speaking out against Erdogan. It only increased Imamoglu’s popularity in the election, similar to many nations like the United States and India, where opposition leaders campaigned on “unjust prosecution,” and led to major gains for opposition parties.

Overall, the shift towards stronger control by the government in Turkey is an alarming sign, and yet more and more opposition figures get arrested. However, at what cost will this come with? It could very well stagnate the fragile economy even further, or Erdogan’s proposed fixes could stagnate Imamoglu’s popularity.