Two Polands, One Presidency

June 2nd, 2025

Dhruv Arun

Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and first-time politician backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, has taken a narrow lead in Poland’s presidential election. The fresh data showed Nawrocki securing 50.7% of the vote against liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski’s 49.3%.

The historically reliable exit polling data in Poland had initially placed Trzaskowski ahead with 50.3%, prompting him to declare victory. He told jubilant party members, “We won [and the he] will bring people together.” he also stated that: “I will be constructive, I will be a president for all Poles. I will be your president!” However, updated figures later flipped the outcome in Nawrocki’s favor.

Nawrocki responded with equal confidence. Addressing supporters in Warsaw, he said, “I believe that we will all wake up tomorrow morning with President Nawrocki putting the broken Poland back together.” His statement reflected the high stakes of this vote, which has become not just a contest between two individuals, but rather a symbolic showdown between two radically different visions for Poland’s future.

The ideological divide between the candidates could not be clearer. Trzaskowski, a pro-European centrist, campaigned on a platform of democratic reforms, women’s rights, and LGBTQ+ protections. He pledged to support Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition government and help complete its post-PiS institutional overhaul. In contrast, Nawrocki championed a nationalist, socially conservative agenda, calling for reduced migration, stronger borders, and a foreign policy skeptical of Brussels.

Nawrocki’s late surge in the polls was attributed in part to his consolidation of the right-wing vote. He was able to capture nearly 90% of those who had supported far-right Confederation party candidate Sławomir Mentzen in the first round. This shift proved crucial in such a tightly contested race.

His campaign also received an international boost. Nawrocki visited Donald Trump at the White House just weeks before the runoff, and U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem publicly urged Poles to elect him, saying at CPAC Poland, “He needs to be the next president of Poland.” These endorsements reinforced Nawrocki’s image as a key figure in the growing transatlantic populist movement.

If confirmed, Nawrocki’s presidency could have sweeping consequences for domestic governance. While largely ceremonial, the Polish presidency carries the power to veto legislation; an authority outgoing PiS-aligned President Andrzej Duda frequently used to obstruct Tusk’s reforms. As Aleks Szczerbiak of the University of Sussex explained, “Tusk knows the stakes and that if Nawrocki wins, he’s got a lame-duck administration for the next couple of years” (The Guardian.)

The election’s implications extend beyond domestic politics. Nawrocki is expected to pivot Poland toward closer cooperation with Hungary and Slovakia, oppose EU defense integration, and strengthen ties with the United States. He has been critical of Ukraine’s EU and NATO accession, tapping into growing Polish skepticism about Kyiv’s role in the war and refugee burden.

Meanwhile, the election also highlighted deep social and generational divides. Record turnout, over 70%, the highest since 1990, reflected the intensity of public interest (New York Times.) Younger voters largely supported Trzaskowski, while older and rural voters gravitated toward Nawrocki As one local put it, “Sixty-plus? All Nawrocki,” capturing the generational split.

With the final results expected Monday, tensions remain high. Given the razor-thin margin, experts warn the losing side may contest the result. Szczerbiak said that “The election result shows that Poland is very polarized, very divided down the middle [and] the closer the vote, the more likely it is that someone’s going to question it.”

Extemp Question: What does Karol Nawrocki’s rise in Poland signal about the future of populism in Europe?

Extemp Analysis by Sahana Shrikanth

Q: What does Karol Nawrocki’s rise in Poland signal about the future of populism in Europe?

A: To answer this question, I would start by thinking about the best substructure to use for a question that is phrased slightly differently than many standard extemp questions (‘ how can,’ ‘what will,’ ‘what should,’ ‘is it,’ etc). I might opt for a “Status Quo/Past-Present-Future” substructure to analyze what happened in Europe (with populism) before Karol Nawrocki, and what will be the future of Europe after Nawrocki is in power. This would create a clear distinction about the “future” part of the question, avoiding issues in cross examination about the clarity or correctness of the answer.

Answer: (there are definitely many different or qualified answers you can use for a question like this, but this is an example of an answer that may work)

It signals that right wing populists are gaining more control across Europe

P1: Ideological influence of state institutions

P2: Declining faith in EU

P3: Redefinitions of cultural and national identities

Let’s look at how to generally structure this speech. In terms of formatting each point, you could start with your “A” points discussing the correlation between your tag and populism. For example:

1A: Currently, right wing populists in Europe are using their ideological influences to shape state institutions.

2A: Right now, right wing populists are gaining approval in Europe because of declining trust in the European Union.

3A: At present, right wing populists are redefining cultural and national identities to acquire voter support.

In a similar manner, your “B” and “C” points would focus on how Karol Nawrocki’s narrative fits the A framework and what that means for the future of Europe. We’ll look at one example to keep it brief. For example:

1B: Karol Nawrocki, the head of The Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), has come under scrutiny after the IPN was linked to a controversial event sponsored by an openly neo-fascist and anti-Semitic organization.

How: Nawrocki’s leadership of the IPN, a state institution, has caused it to function as a propaganda outlet of right-wing information rather than an objective organization.
Why This Matters: Conservatives in Poland have embraced his impact on the IPN, viewing him as a representation of the values they grew up with. This has contributed to his overwhelming support.

1C: This medium of impacting State Institutions has also been leveraged by other European leaders such as Viktor Orban in Hungary, who has control of state institutions overseeing the media and education in Hungary. Therefore, Karol Nawrocki’s win is a signal that influence over state institutions contributes to populists’ power acquisition across Europe.

Happy practicing!