Myanmar Extends Ceasefire

June 2nd, 2025

Ron Kim

Myanmar's temporary ceasefire, initially declared following the devastating March 28 earthquake, has been extended until June 30.

The ceasefire was first announced after a 7.7 magnitude earthquake killed over 3,800 people and displaced tens of thousands of people. Although many found this as a welcome break from the ongoing quarrel, reports indicated that hostilities continued in some areas, undermining the ceasefire's effectiveness. Independent conflict monitors claim that fighting and junta air strikes have continued throughout the region. The United Nations supported this assertion, declaring that the junta has continued its campaign of aerial bombardment after the ceasefire. In mid-May, witnesses said an airstrike hit a school, resulting in 22 total casualties, 20 of whom were children.

Numerous anti-coup and ethnic armed groups also pledged to stop hostilities during the extended ceasefire. However, despite these promises of peace, some residents in eastern Myanmar have been displaced as anti-coup forces beleaguered junta-held towns. To combat this tension, the Myanmar military warned other organizations that they would retaliate in the case of attacks on transportation routes, civilians, security forces, or military posts. Despite the complex, and violent, situation that has stemmed from the truce, the extended ceasefire was something many political leaders in the region wanted extended.

At the recent ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur on May 27th, leaders urged all conflicting parties in Myanmar to extend the ceasefire and engage in inclusive national dialogue “with the aim of achieving a durable peaceful resolution to the crisis.” The summit's statement emphasized the importance of building mutual trust and fostering sustainable engagement to pave the way for a peaceful resolution. Earlier in April, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim met Myanmar’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing. Even earlier, Malaysia’s Mohamad Hasan and Thailand’s Maris Sangiampongsa met in Naypyidaw to discuss humanitarian aid to those affected by the earthquake.

At a meeting of regional foreign ministers, Mohamad stated in his opening remarks: “We call on the stakeholders in Myanmar to cease hostilities, and to extend and expand the ceasefire, to facilitate the long and difficult path towards recovery, and ease the suffering of the people of Myanmar." Peace remains the predominant goal of ASEAN nations, but progress has been slow. A five-point peace plan, created and approved by ASEAN in 2021, has still not been implemented.

The National Unity Government (NUG,) representing the ousted civilian leadership, welcomed ASEAN's call for an extended ceasefire. However, they expressed concern over the lack of enforceable mechanisms and continued military offensives by the junta, including airstrikes and artillery attacks.

The extension of the ceasefire until June 30 offers a narrow window of hope for a region long marred by conflict and suffering. While violations of the truce continue to cast doubt on its effectiveness, regional leaders and international observers will likely remain cautiously optimistic.

Extemp Analysis by Rowan Seipp

Extemp Question: Will the recent extension of Myanmar’s ceasefire lead to progress toward long-term peace?

AGD: I gave almost this exact speech at TFA Finals so I am stealing my intro from then: I would focus on a story of someone from Myanmar, because an entire generation of Burmese only know war.

BG: Explain the actors/crucial developments in the war and the fall of democracy in 2019

SOS: Recall that along with the war, there is also an ethnic cleansing. When it comes to Myanmar, pick your poison of horrible struggles.

Answer:

Rebel control
Collapse of the Junta military
Lack of supplies

Substructure: Your job is to prove that rebel territory is increasing. I would use the A. to argue that the rebels control more territory than the government, and then the B. to argue that this progress means that the Junta is being forced to sue for peace and the C. to argue the impact. Challenge yourself to come up with a thesis or overarching point while answering this on your own.