The Polish Presidential Election: PiS for Peace

June 9th, 2025

Max Guo

The night before the election, betting markets believed that Karol Nawrocki, the populist conservative candidate of the Law and Justice Party for the Polish presidency, would have a mere 28.6% chance of securing victory in the election held on June 2nd. All the early exit polling showed his centrist opponent, the Mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, leading by a narrow margin. Mr. Trzaskowski even had the balls to proclaim victory early, declaring Sunday night that he would be a “President for all Poles” (doesn’t that sound familiar.) By Monday morning, however, the tide had shifted, and Mr. Nawrocki had won the closest election in modern Polish history.

Before we dive in, here is a quick summary of Poland’s political system, according to Wikipedia (the most trustworthy news source). Poland’s president acts as the Commander-in-Chief, Chief Diplomat, and has the power to veto legislation passed by the Parliament. However, the presidency in Poland is largely ceremonial, because much of the domestic executive authority falls to the Prime Minister, who is also head of the majority party/coalition in Sejm, the lower house of Parliament. The PM is usually the one who formulates the policy agenda, and who is responsible for leading the nation throughout his (no “her” yet) four-year term. However, the president’s veto power can still make life hell for the PM.

Poland has two primary parties: Civic Platform (PO) and Law and Justice (PiS.) Civic Platform represents the centrist, technocratic, EU-friendly, traditional continental party. PiS, on the other hand, represents a kind of Trumpian populist right, with a motley collection of voters from traditional Catholics to young, social-media savvy men forming its base. Between 2015 and 2023, PiS controlled the entire government, holding both the presidency and the premiership. With a mindset of “let’s get things done, screw the rules” (characteristic among populist parties like PiS,) the party immediately pounced on the one branch yet to fall under their control: the courts. In 2015, the PiS PM, in conjunction with the allied president, nullified five nominations to the Constitutional Tribunal, the country’s highest court, which had been made by the outgoing government. When the Constitutional Tribunal itself declared three of PiS’ nominations unconstitutional, the government simply ignored the order, and swore them in anyway. To this day, despite losing power in Parliament, PiS continues to wield a majority in the tribunal thanks to those three judges. Beyond the courts, PiS also packed the country’s publicly-funded news media with loyalists. The Economist contends that PiS turned public media into a “propaganda machine” for the party. PiS's term in power was also marked by the implementation of a series of socially conservative policies, including the rolling back of abortion protections and the refusal to recognize same-sex marriages as equal under the law.

For many, Poland’s emergence from PiS rule in 2023 was supposed to be an end to extremism, a return to normalcy, and a strengthening of democracy. Instead, the current governing coalition, led by PO leader Donald Tusk, has spent more time trying to get its constituent parties to agree on anything than to plan for the future. In 2024, an attempt to pass a more liberal abortion bill failed in the Sejm, with the socially conservative Polish People’s Party, a faction of the government, breaking ranks with PO and voting with the opposition to kill the bill. While PO remains the largest party in the government, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that a coalition that also comprises the Greens, Left, and Polish People’s Party can’t agree on much. PiS-affiliated president Andrzej Duda wasn’t making governing much easier either. Consequently, trust in the government has fallen to an all-time low of 39%.

The victory of Mr. Nawrocki won’t change Mr. Tusk’s agenda, but it will change the likelihood that he can get that agenda enacted. Unlike in America, where ineffective policy making is usually blamed on the president, in Poland, the PM is the one politically punished for inefficiencies in government. The next legislative election to choose a new PM happens in 2027. If Tusk’s allies start jumping ship, the election could happen even earlier. Nawrocki just has to stall out Tusk with his veto power, build up the public’s impatience, and voila! PiS would sweep to victory in 2027. “Nawrocki [enters] as a bulldozer, someone who’s supposed to clear the path for a new PiS government,” argues Andrzej Bobinski, a Polish political analyst. If that happens, PO will have to wait until 2030 before they have another chance at the presidency, and a chance to stop the PiS political bulldozer from continuing where it left off in 2023.

Question: How will the recent Polish elections affect Polish politics in the near future?