Azerbaijan and Armenia Finally Sign Peace Deal

August 11th, 2025
Jack Riegler and Dhruv Arun

On August 8th, 2025, Azerbaijan and Armenia finally signed a US-brokered peace deal. First announced in March, the deal would boost bilateral economic ties after decades of ethnic conflict, potentially moving them towards full political normalization. The deal between the South Caucasus rivals—assuming it holds— would be a significant accomplishment for the Trump Administration, one that is sure to rattle Moscow, which sees the region as within its sphere of influence.

Azerbaijan and Armenia have gone to war several times since the Soviet Union’s dissolution in the 1990s, each claiming sovereignty over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave composed mostly of ethnic Armenians. Following a ceasefire reached in 1994, violent cross-border exchanges have still been common. In 2020, sporadic ceasefire violations escalated tensions. By 2022, those tensions had exploded into a two-day conflict, leaving around 300 dead. In 2023, Azerbaijan launched a full-scale offensive into Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in around 100,000 displaced and around 6,000 dead. Azerbaijan’s occupation forced almost all of the enclave’s 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee to other parts of Armenia within a week.

As Russia has increasingly turned inward, focusing on its dragging war with Ukraine, it has pulled away from mediating tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia, leaving Armenia (a long-standing ally of Russia) feeling abandoned. Azerbaijani relations with Russia have also been extremely strained lately. Azerbaijan has increased tensions with Russia following the arrest of several dozen Azerbaijanis in Russia, allegedly connected to a series of murders that occurred fifteen years ago. In custody, the men were beaten, and two died. Azerbaijani authorities accused Russia of deliberately killing their nationals. As a result, Azerbaijan cancelled cultural events across Russia and raided the Baku office of the Russian news agency Sputnik, arresting several IT professionals. This historic deal completely sidelines Putin and Russia’s influence in a key region near their border, which will play a key role in Trump’s meeting with Putin in Alaska next week. Azerbaijan and Armenia also decided to leave the OSCE Minsk Group.

At the White House signing ceremony, Trump underscored the significance of the moment, saying, “It's a long time—35 years—they fought and now they're friends, and they're going to be friends for a long time.” While the agreement does not constitute a formal peace treaty, it is the first bilateral declaration the two countries have ever signed, marking a significant step towards permanent peace. However, it is noticeable that the deal still does not resolve the longstanding dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh.

As part of the deal, the United States will help build a major transit corridor called the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which will connect Azerbaijan to its outer Nakhchivan enclave, which is separated from the country’s mainland by Armenia. The US will have exclusive developmental rights to the corridor, and public reaction in the region has been mixed. Iran is expected to voice displeasure with the TRIPP—or “Trump Bridge”—project, as it would weaken Armenian control over a portion of the Armenian-Iranian border This is because the project is expected to take place close to much of that border. Turkey has welcomed the planned corridor, hoping it will boost exports of energy and other resources through the South Caucasus.

Extemp Analysis by Lindsey Zhao

Question: How will the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal be received by countries in the region?

AGD: Narrative about someone who has been impacted by this very long conflict and how they’re hopeful about the newest peace deal.

Background: This is a very complicated conflict, so you’ll need to condense…roughly 40 years of history in about 20 seconds! The most important thing to mention about the period before this peace deal is that a) it was long and over an ethnically Armenian enclave and b) the 2023 displacement because it was the most recent major update. Then, explain the basic points of the peace deal (especially as it relates to other countries, like mentioning the corridor) and how there’s a lot of potential.

Answer: With hesitancy/caution

3 Points:

TRIPPS Corridor
1. Turkey and Iran’s reactions (mostly Iran’s)
Leaving the Minsk Group
1. No more outside mediator stationed in the region
Alienating Russia
1. No one wants to make Russia angry!

Analysis + Concluding Thoughts

Probably the most straightforward ways to frame your points are having a) each point be about a part of the peace deal or b) each point be about a specific country and their reaction in general. A) is probably better cuz it’s easier to be specific.