A Showdown Over BLS Statistics

August 18th, 2025
Daniel Song

On August 1, President Donald Trump fired Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—the government agency that measures inflation, jobs and other key economic data. Dr. McEntarfer herself was widely supported in her bipartisan 86-8 Senate vote for the position in 2024, with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, then senators, both voting in favor. Yet, McEntarfer was fired because Trump claimed she “rigged” the data to show a weak July jobs report, as the US economy only added 73,000 new non-farm jobs, below analyst estimates of 100,000. Critically, the June and May job totals were also revised lower by a combined 258,000 from previously announced levels.

However, there is no evidence of the BLS altering job data. In fact, revisions are common practice. That’s because while policymakers, investors and businesses want economic data as quickly as possible to inform their decisions, the most comprehensive data is based on tax returns, Social Security filings or other records that aren’t available until months or years later. To address this issue, the BLS releases preliminary figures and then revises them as more data becomes available. The BLS measures jobs data by surveying 121,000 businesses and government agencies each month and revises the numbers twice in subsequent months, as data comes in from employers that respond late.

One of the reasons for larger revisions is that response rates to the surveys have been declining for years, forcing the BLS to rely on less data, thus producing more volatile estimates. However, this cannot be fixed by replacing the BLS Commissioner; more funding and outreach to boost response rates would yield effective improvements. Ironically, the Trump administration's actions may hurt the accuracy of BLS data, as his 2026 budget proposes cutting the BLS budget by $56 million. Additionally, Trump's disbanding of the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee—a group of experts advising the government on creating quality economic data—only further damages data collection.

To replace McEntarfer, Trump has nominated E.J. Antoni, an economist at the pro-Trump Heritage Foundation. This choice was widely criticized by economists on both the left and right. University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers pointed out that Antoni’s lackluster resume consists of a doctorate from the University of Northern Illinois, but no prior research on labor markets or data collection, and only a single citation in his academic papers. Wolfers continued that this record would be “insufficient” to earn a job as a junior staffer at BLS. Conservative economists have also denounced Antoni, with Stan Veuger—an economist at the right-wing American Enterprise Institute—stating that Antoni is “utterly unqualified and as partisan as it gets.” Specifically, Antoni misunderstood key economic data by citing the rising number of Americans who aren’t in the labor force, without acknowledging the role of the aging population and failing to know that the BLS’s measure of import prices did not include the effect of tariffs. Antoni himself has also made unorthodox proposals about the BLS’s practices, suggesting in a Fox News interview the suspension of the monthly jobs report in exchange for publishing only quarterly data to ensure accuracy.

A partisan appointee leading the BLS might hurt the credibility and accuracy of economic data, which could have devastating consequences. The data is used to guide investment and hiring decisions of businesses, determine employee wages and supporting the Federal Reserve in setting the national interest rate. Without accurate and trustworthy data, consumers, businesses, government officials and investors would be kept in the dark about the true state of the economy, potentially making faulty decisions. Additionally, historical precedent in other countries illustrates the potential risks of politicized and unreliable economic data. In Argentina and Greece, governments fudged deficit figures and inflation data, causing debt crises in both countries and loss of investor confidence in their economies.

Extemp Analysis by: Rowan Seipp

Question: If confirmed, what will be the economic impact of E.J. Antoni leading the BLS?

AGD: JOKES, JOKES, JOKES. This story is objectively hilarious so make it so.

Background: What is the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and why does it matter who's in charge?

Answer: The answer will likely be a decline in public confidence in key government economic data.

Politicization of Data
Uncertainty and Distrust
Potential for Reduced Funding and Staffing

Analysis + Concluding Thoughts

Talk about why it matters who leads the BLS and what the issue with Trump influence is.