South Africa’s Political Dysfunction, And Its Future

August 18th, 2025
Max Guo

It was an unlikely alliance to begin with. Earlier last year, the African National Congress (ANC)—the party of Nelson Mandela—fell below the threshold to form a majority in Parliament for the first time in three decades, compelling it to form an alliance with the neoliberal, white-dominated Democratic Alliance (DA) in the opposition. In recent months, the alliance has become increasingly shaky, with tensions reaching a breaking point when the DA voted against a budget bill proposed by their coalition partners, one that would have increased taxation on food and electricity by 0.5%. While the coalition survived the fallout, the road ahead remains bumpy. What would happen if it collapsed?

Let’s begin with the ANC, which would, by far, be the biggest loser from such a collapse. The first, most obvious problem, is the continued corruption within ANC ranks. Just last month, the National Police Minister, long thought to be immune from the plague of corruption, and representative of a new chapter of leadership in the party, was suspended for allegedly taking bribes from local gangs. This only feeds into the growing perception that government corruption is worsening under ANC rule. In addition, while over 50% of South Africans still live in poverty, its Gini Index, a measurement of inequality in nation states, is one of the highest in the globe. The ANC’s flagship policy of Black Economic Empowerment, which guarantees business deals for the class of Black elites close to the ANC, has tripled the income of the top 10% of Black earners since 1994, while doing little to boost job prospects for the poorest—as job growth was actually negative in the first quarter of this year.

Despite being a part of the government, the DA could benefit from the ANC’s combustion. For one, the DA has far outperformed any other party in local governance. For the last three years, the city of Cape Town has been the only city in the country to receive a clear audit outcome by the Federal Auditor General. It has also been the only major city run by the DA in that period. This has translated into a greater degree of trust in the DA, even among Black voters. An online poll conducted by the Sowetan, a newspaper with a largely Black readership, found that 81% of respondents believed the DA could “turn the city of Johannesburg (the largest in the country) around.” It is currently being run by the ANC. The DA has remained largely untainted by the ANC’s corruption. A poll conducted by the Brenthurst Foundation found that, of the five ministries that a majority of South Africans say are “performing well,” all are currently run by the DA. Despite these positive signs, if a snap election were called today, the DA stands little chance of winning a majority, as many Black voters still do not see the party as representing their interests. However, as the party increasingly places Black members in leadership positions, such a perception could gradually change.

The current political situation in South Africa remains volatile. Voter discontent with both major parties has precipitated the rise of alternatives, such as the Economic Freedom Fighters—a left-wing populist outfit—and the MK Party— composed largely of former ANC President Jacob Zuma’s loyal base. As US President Donald Trump continues to place diplomatic and economic pressure on South Africa, the stability of the government remains critical in helping the nation navigate a rapidly evolving geopolitical environment.

Extemp Analysis by: Max Guo

Question: If the Government of National Unity in South Africa collapsed, who would be the greatest beneficiary?

AGD: Since this is a political question, I’d probably begin with a joke. Perhaps something corny, like a pun, would do the trick, establishing a lighthearted tone while not diminishing the seriousness of the current malaise South Africa is in.

Background: I’d focus on the history of ANC rule, and bring in the factors that led to their unimpressive performance in last years’ elections. I would also establish that a collapse in the Government of National Unity would probably precipitate a snap election.

For the SOS, I would either focus on an impact relating to South Africa’s current economic situation, or play with the idea that South Africa has been ruled for 30 years by the ANC, and that any political change would be seismic

Answer: I would argue that the biggest beneficiary is the DA. I separate my analysis into 3 points

ANC
Smaller Parties
The DA

Analysis + Concluding Thoughts

In each point, the substructure would explain the current situation facing the party (ie. their popularity, and scandals etc.), and follow that up by connecting that to greater electoral success in the B-subpoint. For the first two points, I would discuss why their reputations have been damaged, while for the third, I would point to the economic record of the DA in the cities they run, and the departments that they head.