Myanmar To Hold Election Amidst a Civil War

August 25th, 2025
Arnav Goyal

On August 18, 2025, Myanmar’s military junta—led by Min Aung Hlaing— announced elections in the country for December 28th and beyond after lifting a state of emergency a few weeks prior. However, this move is largely seen as a front for sham elections, as the military junta wants to legitimize and consolidate its power. But the reason behind Myanmar’s elections is intriguing in its own right.

Background

Myanmar has been beset by political instability since its independence, leading to many of its post-independence governments being dictatorships. In 2021, the Tatmadaw—Myanmar’s armed forces—instigated a successful coup d'état with the help of the Vice President, Myint Swe, and took power away from the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. Immediately after the coup, Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the junta, declared a state of emergency as part of a way to consolidate power.

The coup sparked Myanmar’s civil war, between the National Unity Government—a group of former legislators in exile due to their ousting after the coup—the Tatmadaw and other rebel and ethnic forces throughout the nation. The Tatmadaw has unleashed ruthless scorched-earth tactics, such as airstrikes on civilians, forcing civilians to join the military. This has led to the displacement of nearly 18 million people, along with various forms of human rights abuses under the military junta’s leadership.

Due to this, the military junta has been described as highly authoritarian, with the Democracy Index warning in 2022 that Myanmar is the 2nd most authoritarian regime in the world. Additionally, high levels of corruption and human rights abuses against the Rohingya Muslims have seen Western nations impose harsh sanctions on the junta.

Why Elections?

On July 31, 2025, the junta lifted the state of emergency in the country to effectively prepare for elections, transforming the junta into a “caretaker administration.” However, the governance structure of Myanmar remained the same. By lifting the state of emergency, the path to an election became even clearer. Holding elections would ensure the credibility and legitimacy of the junta government. Yet, most have regarded the new election as a sham and not representative of the people. The 3 commonly cited reasons are:

Tom Andrews—the UN’s special rapporteur on Myanmar’s human rights situation—accused the junta of designing a "mirage of an election exercise" to show power and legitimacy.
Due to the war, elections will be hard to manage. Since the Tatmadaw only controls roughly 40% of Myanmar, statements by opposition forces, such as the National Unity Government, declaring that they won’t administer the elections hampers the Tatmadaws’ plans.
The Tatmadaw has outright banned many opposition groups, such as the National League for Democracy Party led by Aung San Suu Kyi, who won a landslide victory in the 2020 elections; something which the Tatmadaw vehemently denied.

This does not factor in the human rights atrocities the junta has participated in, such as abusing and torturing children as young as 2 years old, going full-force with the Rohingya genocide, and airstriking opposition civilian targets—something which has proved highly controversial.

What’s next?

Overall, the election results in Myanmar remain unclear; however, it is widely predicted that the junta will win. The impacts of this on the civil war are yet to be known. If the junta wins, they could very well use the election win—sham or not— to bolster their tactics in the war and continue with their scorched-earth tactics. If the junta loses—which is widely seen as unlikely if not impossible—it would send shockwaves throughout the global community, and could lead to further confusion.

Extemp Analysis by: Ian Cheng

Question: Are Myanmar’s pledges to hold free and fair elections in December to be believed?

AGD: A sob story would be the easiest way to go. Find a narrative illustrating how someone has been suffering as a result of the instability and the civil war in Myanmar. Emphasize sadness and suffering with facial and vocal intonation, but don’t make the story too long. A joke is harder to pull off because this topic is more serious.

Background: There’s been a civil war in Myanmar between the ruling military government (also known as the junta) against several different rebel groups, and the junta is on the defensive. Make sure to note the fact that there are elections scheduled for December, and briefly mention the fact that there are doubts over credibility. For the statement of significance / relevance / sig statement, a statistic about displacements/deaths would work great.

Answer: Absolutely not, because Myanmar is in no position to make elections this way (free and fair).

Torture leading to forced voting
Scam dens
Humanitarian crisis

Use an Expectation, Violation/Verification substructure, where…

What a free and fair election looks like
Why it isn’t happening in Myanmar -> elaborate on situation and zero in on specifics
Impact

A1: People vote as they wish without anyone affecting the decision

B1: Not the case. Election is actually a distraction to hide the military government’s atrocities. The junta and their followers, especially in areas they control, are trying to force citizens to vote in their favor using torture and other disgraceful methods.

C1: Sham election. It goes beyond vote change -> but it also leads to human rights issues -> people as young as two years old are being detained for leverage.

A2: In a free election, voters aren’t deceived nor exposed to propaganda.

B2: That is the case. Myanmar has a vast “scam den” network, where forced labor is used to send scam texts and calls to people -> and it is run by the junta.

C2: Myanmar can use this system to rig the election and post up propaganda to help the military government win.

A3: In times of crisis, there’s a lot of instability, cannot run a free and fair election because the government has too much on their hands

B3: Exactly what’s happening now. In the Kutupalong Refugee camp, 880k Rohingyans, a racial group targeted by the junta, are being held, with allowances of $6 a MONTH.

C3: Two impacts: people are too weak to go to the ballot box and vote, but the government has no capability to stabilize an election.

In referring to people from Myanmar, there are two words that work: Burmese and Myanmarese, pick whatever is easier for you. Happy practicing!