El Salvador’s Democracy Crumbles

On August 1, the El Salvadorian Legislative Assembly, packed with hand-picked representatives, delivered a major blow to democracy in El Salvador: removing  term limits for presidents and extending presidential terms. This has come as a breakthrough at a time when El Salvador’s democracy is hanging by a thread, especially with the rise of President Nayib Bukele. 

Many, including human rights advocates and experts in the region, have decried this bill being passed, asserting it as authoritarian and practically installing Bukele as a dictator. However, this verdict comes as no surprise. After the 2024 legislative election, where power was even more concentrated due to gerrymandering and a reduction in several districts, President Nayib Bukele’s party, Nuevas Ideas, held 90% of the seats in the legislature, holding 54/60 seats in the legislature. This makes it very easy for Bukele to pass his agenda and ensure a stronger hold on El Salvador.

Many of his actions are going virtually unchecked, including: 

• The crackdown on gangs in the country has led to lower homicide rates, but questions over some people’s innocence remain

• Bukele ordered armed soldiers to storm the Legislative Assembly so he could get a loan passed through

• His supermajority Congress voted to oust much of the Supreme Court and pack it with Bukele loyalists

• His hand-picked Supreme Court let Bukele run for another term, even though it is prohibited under the Constitution

Yet, many of these controversies simply aren’t relevant to the voters of El Salvador. However, his handling of crime remains relevant. Bukele has consistently campaigned on crime as his number one issue, and much of El Salvador supports his agenda on it. For context, after a record number of homicides in one weekend, the government declared a state of emergency that suspended several constitutional rights and enabled the government to launch mass arrests of suspected gang members. This led to tens of thousands of arrests and a drastic drop in homicides. Yet, questions have still arisen on negotiations with gangs like MS-13, especially after negotiations with the US on the release of MS-13 gang leaders, and also major human rights abuses, with some calling it the worst since the civil war in the country, which happened from 1980-1992. 

It is imperative to note that the people of El Salvador still heavily support Bukele despite these scandals. In the 2024 election, Bukele won with 85% of the vote, and his popularity only seems to be growing, due to the sharp reduction of crime in the country and far less gang activity.

The vote on the bill itself was very lopsided, 57-3. Remarkably, the bill was introduced by a low-ranking member. In just 3 hours, the bill ignoring any sort of hearings or debate to be introduced. This is usually unheard of in a legislature: however, the practical efficiency of the gerrymandered legislature has led to the easy passing of Bukele’s agenda. 

However, what does all this entail for Salvadoran democracy? It’s simple–there will be a lot more action that is highly controversial, and President Bukele can’t, and won’t, shy away from his “World’s Coolest Dictator” image. Due to bills such as these passing, Bukele can hold power for an eternity, which could lead to full-on authoritarianism. People have defended this by saying that countries such as France and Germany don’t have term limits, and El Salvador’s Representatives don’t. However, critics such as Representative Claudia Ortiz have called this a flawed comparison, as France and Germany are far more multi-party, rather than the essentially one-party state that El Salvador is in.

Overall, the situation in El Salvador must be taken into perspective with ambiguity. On one hand, you have crime reduction, but on the other hand, there is no due process for those who are wrongly accused of committing crimes. On the other hand, you have an extremely popular president, one who silences critics and is consolidating control in El Salvador. It requires some perspective, and with this new bill being passed, it must be looked into further.

Extemp Analysis by: Ty Tan

Question: Does Bukele’s recent consolidation of power signal that El Salvador is heading toward dictatorial rule?

AGD: Definitely a joke about Bukele is the way to go—this speech is perfect for a joke into a greater advocacy speech.

Background:

For your three sentence background, I would do the legwork for defining stuff and setting up a few key things.

1. The popularity of Bukele through elections and how that lets him consolidate power

2. The recent constitutional changes that demonstrate a consolidation of power

3. How these changes could signal that the nation is heading toward dictatorial rule based off some condition for dictatorships

Answer: Yes, by tearing down democracy

P1: Axing Term Limits

P2: Extending Presidential Re-election

P3: Setting up Executive Overreach

Analysis + Concluding Thoughts

To explain the simplest form of the argument I’ll break down Point 1.

P1: Axing Term Limits
OT: Some pun or joke about axe-throwing is what I did

A: Condition for democracy being term limits (i.e., theory of democracy surrounding why term limits are necessary for preventing ocrruption + keeping incumbents 

B: Bukele axes term limits → thus shifting El Salvador away from democracy

Indefinite control + popularity = Bukele can keep extending his term

C: People lost democracy + powerline about cuts to democracy (continue axe metaphor of chopping?)

That’s how I did this point. I think the idea of theory application as a similar version of evv is good for this speech. I would be careful about point overlap in a question that's a bit more specific like this one. Have fun!

Read more here:

• Emily Green, Reuters

• Teo Armus, Washington Post

• Michael McDonald, Bloomberg

• Staff, The Economist