French Politics: Prime Minister Substitution

September 8th, 2025
Patrick Li

Despite being no stranger to political chaos, what’s happening under Emmanuel Macron’s France—even by its historical standards—is nothing short of extraordinary. As of right now, the French population has swapped five prime ministers in less than two years—something not seen since the dubious Fourth Republic of the 1950s.

The fiasco started with Élisabeth Borne. Appointed in May 2022, her late-night work habits and carrying of Macron’s second term through pension reform fights and mass protests gave her the nickname ‘technocrat.’ Although she was the second woman to hold the office, January 2024 saw her authority run out, as the loss of a majority saw her removed.

Next, at 34, Gabriel Attal was appointed. As the youngest prime minister in French history—and openly gay—Macron hoped a fresh face would revive a deteriorating coalition. For a while, it seemed to work—Attal played well on TV, drew positive headlines and sold himself as “the new Macron.” Yet, when Macron dissolved parliament in June 2024 and lost even more seats, virtually all of Attal’s political capital evaporated. He resigned in September 2024.

Then came Michel Barnier. Already an established and familiar name in Europe, most known for being the EU’s lead Brexit negotiator, he was billed as the steady hand. Starkly contrasting with Attal, Barnier, at 73, became the oldest prime minister in the Fifth Republic. His message was “unity.” His reality was three months in office before losing a confidence vote in December 2024.

That’s when François Bayrou stepped in. Bayrou is a centrist stalwart, an ally of Macron since 2017 and a man who has spent decades circling the top job. In December 2024, he finally got it. His mission: tackle France’s ballooning debt—114% of GDP—and trim the deficit—5.4% of GDP this year. His plan? €44 billion in savings by 2026. His problem? Everyone hated it.

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally called it a death blow to the middle class. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s hard left denounced it as “poison.” Even Olivier Faure’s Socialists, who flirted with cooperation, demanded Bayrou cut his target in half. Mélenchon promptly blasted Faure as “dismaying” for even considering compromise. Bayrou’s minority government never had the numbers.

Now, a vote of confidence is set for September 8th. Few expect Bayrou to survive. “He’s toast,” admitted one Macron ally. If he falls, Macron will appoint yet another prime minister—the fifth since January 2024.

Extemp Analysis by Finian Knepper

Question: How can Emmanuel Macron choose an effective Prime Minister while also keeping the needs of his people in mind?

AGDs: Humorous all the way. While political chaos is important, as usual if there’s direct harm to people, a narrative AGD is going to be a stretch.

Background: Background is especially important for this. Notifying you judges of why picking the next PM is important. In addition, you need to explain the PM's chaos to your judge, which will ensure that they know why this is such a difficult decision. This will give you bonus points, as it will smoothly transition from establishing a burden, and then proving it.

Thesis/3 main points: I will admit, this question is very hard, given the myriad of potential candidates to choose from. However, a good response would compare the wants/needs of the french public with someone who already has a political standing. As such, my example is:

By acknowledging public opinion
By increasing public trust
Matching qualifications with authenticity.

As you can definitely see, these answers are a bit tricky. But using them effectively will allow you to create a great speech, by showing your judge both knowledge of France's current political climate, and what the future may hold for it.